Abstract

VASQUEZ MARTINEZ, Roberto; GONZALEZ FARIAS, Graciela; MARQUEZ URBINA, José Ulises  and  RAMOS QUIROGA, Rogelio. A Gompertz mixture approach for modeling the evolution of the COVID-19 dynamics. Rev. Mat [online]. 2023, vol.30, n.1, pp.141-172. ISSN 1409-2433.  http://dx.doi.org/10.15517/rmta.v30i1.50927.

Different countries used the growth Gompertz function at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to model the number of cumulative infected cases since it provides reasonable results. Such a model allows only one mode, but the pandemic evolution has exhibited a multimodal behavior due to the different waves and variants of the COVID-19 virus. Thus, Gompertz’s classical growth model is not well suited to describe a long pandemic with different virus variants. This work presents generalizations of the Gompertz model that can reproduce a multimodal behavior to model the dynamics of infected cases. The models are applied to COVID-19 data from Nuevo Leon, Mexico.

Keywords : COVID-19; Gompertz mixture; Poisson process; Cox process..

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in English     · English ( pdf )