Mathematics Subject Classification: 90C33, 90C46, 91B50.
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Artículo
Un modelo dinámico para reducir la contaminación en México
A dynamic model for reducing pollution in Mexico
1Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Departamento de Economía, Ciudad de México, México. jcdesprof@gmail.com
2Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica, Ciudad de México, México. gamma@xanum.uam.mx
3Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Departamento de Matemáticas, Ciudad de México, México. eomagna@gmail.com
4Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica, Ciudad de México, México. cobos@xanum.uam.mx
El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar la eficacia de una política ambiental que promueva la sustitución de energías fósiles por renovables, con la finalidad de reducir gradualmente las emisiones de dióxido de carbono a lo largo de un periodo. Se utiliza un modelo dinámico de equilibrio general computable para la economía mexicana y se simulan escenarios con dos elasticidades de sustitución, cuando se gravan de manera conjunta a dos de los bienes energéticos que usan combustibles fósiles, midiendo sus impactos sobre la producción agregada y el bienestar social. El análisis de los resultados muestra que la eficacia de la política depende de la elasticidad de sustitución. En el escenario rígido es parcialmente efectiva, ya que se reducen las demandas de todas las energías, fósiles y renovables. El escenario flexible resulta ser eficaz, al favorecer la sustitución entre las energías. La reducción es mayor en el escenario rígido que en el flexible. En cada escenario al incrementar el impuesto disminuyen el PIB y el bienestar social respecto al equilibrio de referencia.
Palabras clave: política ambiental; desarrollo sustentable; equilibrio general computable; energía; modelos dinámicos
The objective of this work is to evaluate the effectiveness of an environmental policy that promotes the substitution of fossil fuels for renewable alternatives, to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used for the Mexican economy simulating economic scenarios with two elasticities of substitution, when two of the energy goods that use fossil fuels are taxed together. The impacts on aggregate production and social well-being are quantified or measured. The analysis shows that the effectiveness of the policy depends on the elasticity of substitution. The rigid scenario is partially effective, since the demands of all the energies, fossils and renewable are reduced. The flexible scenario turns out to be effective, favoring the substitution between energies. The demand of all energies is further reduced in the rigid scenario than in the flexible. In each scenario, increasing the tax reduces GDP and social welfare in relation to the reference equilibrium.
Keywords: environmental policy; sustainable development; computable general equilibrium; energy; dynamic models
Mathematics Subject Classification: 90C33, 90C46, 91B50.
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Agradecimientos
Los autores agradecen el apoyo brindado por la Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Iztapalapa, en particular a los Departamentos de Economía, Ingeniería Eléctrica y Matemáticas
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Recibido: 09 de Mayo de 2018; Revisado: 09 de Mayo de 2019; Aprobado: 23 de Mayo de 2019