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Revista Costarricense de Cardiología

Print version ISSN 1409-4142


VILLARROEL-ABREGO, Hugo; VILLARROEL-MARTINEZ, Mónica  and  TREJOS-MONTOYA, José. Influencia de factores de riesgo en la predicción de un evento cardiovascular adverso en población adulta de prevención primaria en El Salvador. Rev. costarric. cardiol [online]. 2021, vol.23, n.2, pp.5-9. ISSN 1409-4142.

Influence of risk factors in the prediction of an adverse cardiovascular event in the adult population of primary prevention in El Salvador In the Latin American region, there are few prediction models that allow us to know which risk factors are more prevalent and the few available studies do not work well in this population.


Determine the probability and prediction that the risk factors of sex, age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), diabetes mellitus and smoking have on the appearance of an adverse cardiovascular event (ACE) in a Salvadoran population.


Retrospective and predictive case-control study. A total of 527 adults participated in the outpatient cardiology consultation with no prior recorded cardiovascular events. Chi Square (X2) and Cramer’s V were used to compare frequencies and binary logistic regression to determine the prediction and estimated probabilities of presenting an ACE in a period of 5 years.


A significantly low correlation was found between ACEs and sex (rΦ= -.164; p <.001), diabetes (rΦ= -.244; p <.001) and with smoking (rΦ= -.159; p <.001). Also, a moderate effect with risk stratification (Cramer’s V = .359; p <.001). There is a significant prediction (X2 = 82.1; p <.001), which responds to 32.6% of the model.


The variables of sex, age, the presence of diabetes mellitus and smoking predict the appearance of an RCT in a period of 5 years, while BMI and SBP do not significantly influence the probability of suffering from an ACE.

Keywords : risk factors; adverse cardiovascular event; binary logistic regression..

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