<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0034-7744</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Biología Tropical]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. biol. trop]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0034-7744</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Costa Rica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0034-77442020000200517</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15517/rbt.v68i2.38610</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Will global change modify the distribution of the Anadenanthera colubrina (Fabales: Fabaceae) plant, a key species in dry tropical forest?]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[¿El cambio global modificará la distribución de la planta Anadenanthera colubrina (Fabales: Fabaceae), especie clave de los bosques tropicales secos?]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Giamminola]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eugenia M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Urtasun]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[María M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lamas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carola Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[De Viana]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marta L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Salta  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Argentina</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Salta  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Argentina</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>68</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>517</fpage>
<lpage>527</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0034-77442020000200517&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0034-77442020000200517&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0034-77442020000200517&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Introduction: Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are one of the most threatened terrestrial ecosystems on the planet as a consequence of global change. They harbor high biodiversity and provide a wide range of ecosystem services; therefore, their conservation is a priority worldwide. Climate warming, as well as land use patterns, are leading to species distribution range shifts.  Objective:  The objective of this work was to study the current and future potential distribution of a SDTF representative tree species (Anadenanthera colubrina) in the Argentinian Sub Andean Piedmont nucleus and to assess the effects of land use and climate changes.  Methods: Current and future potential distribution was modeled with Maxent, using 49 presence points and 20 variables. Climate change effects were estimated in four different temperature and carbon dioxide concentration scenarios. Land use changes were determined subtracting the deforested area until 2017 to the current and future potential distribution of the species.  Results: A. colubrina current distribution represents 18 % of Northwestern Argentina. Land use changes decreased almost 25 % of it and climate change will probably cause a retraction in the East and a slight expansion towards the West and South of the current distribution. The synergistic effect of land use and climate change projected to the worst scenario would reduce 63 % of its current distribution.  Conclusions:  Our data demonstrate the central role of distribution range studies to assess the effects of anthropic activities. Climate change and land use change would have a negative and synergistic effect on the distribution of A. colubrina. Although a possible expansion of the Sub Andean Piedmont nucleus of SDTF would occur, this expansion may be limited by the Sub Andean mountain range that could act as an orographic barrier.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Introducción: Los Bosques Tropicales Estacionalmente Secos (BTES) son unos de los ecosistemas terrestres más amenazados del planeta como consecuencia del cambio global. Estos bosques albergan una alta biodiversidad y proporcionan una amplia gama de servicios ecosistémicos, por lo que su conservación es una prioridad a nivel mundial. El cambio climático y el cambio en los usos del suelo están afectando la distribución de las especies.  Objetivo: El objetivo de este trabajo fue estudiar la distribución potencial de una especie representativa de BTES (Anadenanthera colubrina) en el núcleo del Piedemonte subandino argentino y evaluar los efectos del cambio en los usos del suelo y del cambio climático sobre su distribución.  Métodos: La distribución actual y futura de A. colubrina fue modelada con Maxent, utilizando 49 puntos de presencia y 20 variables. Los efectos del cambio climático se estimaron en cuatro escenarios que difieren en los niveles de temperatura y concentración de dióxido de carbono. Los efectos del cambio en el uso del suelo se estimaron descontando el área deforestada hasta el 2017 a la distribución actual y futura de la especie.  Resultados: La distribución actual de A. colubrina representa un 18 % del Noroeste Argentino. Los cambios en el uso del suelo produjeron una disminución del 25 % del área de distribución actual y el cambio climático probablemente causará una retracción al Este y una expansión hacia el oeste y sur de su distribución. El efecto sinérgico del cambio en el uso del suelo y el cambio climático podría producir una pérdida del 63 % considerando el peor escenario de cambio climático.  Conclusiones:  Nuestros datos demuestran el rol fundamental de los estudios de distribución para evaluar los efectos de las actividades antrópicas. Los cambios en los usos del suelo y el cambio climático podrían tener un efecto negativo y sinérgico sobre la distribución de A. colubrina. La posible expansión del núcleo Piedemonte de SDTF hacia el oeste y el sur de la región no estaría limitada por cambios en el uso del suelo, aunque las cadenas montañosas podrían actuar como barreras orográficas y limitar la expansión.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[conservation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[geographic range]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[land use change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[species distribution models.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[conservación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[rango geográfico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambios en los usos del suelo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos de distribución de especies.]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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