<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2215-3470</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Uniciencia]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Uniciencia]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2215-3470</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2215-34702020000100129</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15359/ru.34-1.8</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelación de la deserción universitaria mediante cadenas de Markov]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Modeling of university dropout using Markov chains]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Modelagem do abandono universitário através das cadeias de Markov]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González-Campos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carvajal-Muquillaza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cristian Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aspeé-Chacón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Elías]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,jgonzalez@upla.cl  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Valparaíso]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,cristian.carvajal@upla.cl  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Valparaíso]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso Escuela de Trabajo Social ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Valparaíso]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>34</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>129</fpage>
<lpage>146</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2215-34702020000100129&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2215-34702020000100129&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2215-34702020000100129&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El acceso a la educación superior es solo un primer paso a la equidad educativa, el siguiente es lograr la retención del estudiante o, lo que es lo mismo, evitar su deserción. Esta propuesta se centra en la definición de un índice como estimador del riesgo a la deserción individual, utilizando en tal modelación las cadenas de Markov, con base en la aleatoriedad de la ocurrencia del fenómeno de la deserción. El índice sugerido se aplica a una muestra de 5700 estudiantes universitarios de las cohortes anuales 2012-2015 de 8 facultades, todas ellas pertenecientes a una universidad pública y regional de Chile. Los resultados indican que las mayores probabilidades de deserción se presentan en los 2 primeros semestres de estudios, con una probabilidad promedio superior al 39 %, que luego disminuye a lo largo de los años. Esto obliga a las políticas institucionales a una fuerte inversión focalizada en el primer año. Asimismo, disponer de este índice permite una estimación formal para cambios o variaciones temporales del riesgo y cuantificar el impacto de las intervenciones, no solo para el caso en estudio, sino para todo el sistema de educación superior.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Access to higher education is only a first step in achieving equity in education; the following step is improving student retention, or lowering dropout rates, which is the same thing. The present study focused on the definition of an index as an estimator of the risk of individuals dropping out of a university using a Markov chain model, based on the randomness of the occurrence of dropping out. The suggested index was applied to a sample of 5,700 university students from the 2012-2015 annual cohorts of 8 university departments of a public regional university in Chile. The results indicate that the highest average probability of dropping out (slightly more than 39%) occurs in the first 2 semesters of university studies, and then decreases through time. This indicates the need for institutional retention policies that pay particular attention to the first year of university studies. Having this index also allows a formal estimation of changes or temporary variations in the risk, as well as quantifying the impact of interventions, not only for the case under study but for the entire higher education system.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo O acesso ao ensino superior é apenas um primeiro passo para a equidade educacional, o próximo é alcançar a retenção de estudantes ou, o que é o mesmo, evitar a sua deserção. Esta proposta se enfoca na definição de um índice como um estimador do risco de deserção individual, usando cadeias de Markov em tal modelagem, baseado na aleatoriedade da ocorrência do fenômeno da deserção. O índice sugerido é aplicado a uma amostra de 5700 estudantes universitários das coortes anuais de oito faculdades de 2012-2015, todas pertencentes a uma universidade pública e regional do Chile. Os resultados indicam que as maiores probabilidades de abandono ocorrem nos dois primeiros semestres de estudo, com uma probabilidade média superior a 39%, diminuindo ao longo dos anos. Isso força as políticas institucionais a um forte investimento focado no primeiro ano. Da mesma forma, possuir esse índice permite uma estimativa formal para mudanças ou variações temporárias do risco e quantificar o impacto das intervenções, não apenas para o caso em estudo, mas para todo o sistema de ensino superior.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[abandono de estudios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[deserción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[educación superior]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cadenas de Markov]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Chile]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dropout]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[higher education]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Markov chains]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Chile]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[abandono de estudos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[deserção]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[educação superior]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[cadeias de Markov]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Chile]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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