<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1409-2433</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Matemática Teoría y Aplicaciones]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Mat]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1409-2433</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Investigaciones en Matemática Pura y Aplicada (CIMPA) y Escuela de Matemática, San José, Costa Rica.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1409-24332024000100099</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15517/rmta.v31i1.53186</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Estimación bayesiana de un Modelo Garch-M Bivariado]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[A bayesian estimation of Bivariate Garch-M Models]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cruz-Torres]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cristian]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras  Departamento de Estadística Matemática]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Tegucigalpa]]></addr-line>
<country>Honduras</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>31</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>99</fpage>
<lpage>126</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1409-24332024000100099&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1409-24332024000100099&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1409-24332024000100099&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El modelo GARCH (modelo autorregresivo condicional heterocedástico generalizado) es un modelo estadístico para series de tiempo usado para describir la varianza del error como una función de los errores al cuadrado pasados y de las varianzas. Estos modelos GARCH son usados para modelar la volatilidad variando en el tiempo y los clusters de volatilidad. Si además el efecto de la varianza es incluido en las observaciones para predecir la media, se tiene un GARCH-M (GARCH en media). En este artículo, se analizan estos modelos en un contexto bayesiano para series de tiempo bivariadas, donde las observaciones son asumidas de comportarse como un modelo VAR-GARCH-M. Una aplicación del modelo bivariado es ajustado para medir el efecto de la variabilidad de la inflación y crecimiento del producto en la media de la inflación y crecimiento del producto.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is a statistical model for time series used to describes the variance of the current error as a function of past squared errors terms and previous variances. These GARCH models are commonly used in modeling time varying volatility and volatility clustering. If, in addition, the effect of the variance is included in the observations to predict the mean, we have the GARCH-M (GARCH in mean) models. In this paper, the above issues are analyzed in a bayesian approach to modeling a bivariate time series, where the observations is assumed to behave as a VAR-GARCH-M model. An application of a bivariate model is fitted to measure the effects of inflation variability and uncertainty growth on inflation and output growth mean.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos bivariados GARCH-M]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[inferencia bayesiana]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Monte Carlo Hamiltoniano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[inflación y crecimiento del producto.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[bivariate GARCH-M models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[bayesian inference]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Hamiltonian Monte Carlo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[inflation and output growth.]]></kwd>
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