<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0034-7744</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Biología Tropical]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. biol. trop]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0034-7744</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Costa Rica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0034-77442016000301237</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15517/rbt.v64i3.20150</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Nicho ecológico actual y futuro de la Leishmaniasis (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) en la región Neotropical]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Current and future ecological niche of Leishmaniasis (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) in the Neotropical region]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Moo-Llanes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[David A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>MX</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>64</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>1237</fpage>
<lpage>1245</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0034-77442016000301237&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0034-77442016000301237&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0034-77442016000301237&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[ResumenLa leishmaniasis es un complejo sistema de enfermedades causadas por parásitos protozoarios Leishmania y transmitidos a humanos por el vector Lutzomyia spp, esta es considerada una enfermedad desatendida de acuerdo a la Organización Mundial de la salud. El objetivo de este estudio fue determinar el nicho ecológico actual y futuro de la leishmaniasis cutánea (LC) y leishmaniasis visceral (LV) en la región Neotropical. Nosotros construimos modelos de nicho ecológico (MNE) de LC (N= 2 910 ocurrencias) y LV (N= 851 ocurrencias) usando el algoritmo MaxEnt. Nueve variables bioclimáticas (BIO1, BIO4, BIO5, BIO6, BIO7, BIO12, BIO13, BIO14, BIO15; descargadas de Worldclim), y datos de ocurrencias fueron usados para la construcción de los MNE en tres periodos (actual, 2050 y 2070) y cuatro escenarios de cambio climático (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 y 8.5). Nosotros analizamos el número de pixeles ocupados, identidad de nicho, nicho modificado (estable, perdido y ganado) y estacionalidad. Nuestros resultados indican la expansión de la LC en comparación con la LV. Rechazamos la hipótesis nula de identidad de nicho entre LC y LV con un índice de Hellinger&#8217;s = 0.91 (0.92-0.98) y Schoener&#8217;s = 0.67 (0.85-1.00) pero con un traslape de nicho de 56.3 %. El tipo de leishmaniasis tiene diferentes coberturas de acuerdo al RCP y nicho modificado (ganado/ perdido). La LC tiene estacionalidad a diferencia de la LV. Los MNE de LC y LV proporcionar una visión actual de la región Neotropical, que presenta un mayor incremento de acuerdo con el tiempo, sin embargo, el aumento estacional modificaría la invasión de nuevas áreas en la región.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract:The leishmaniasis is a complex disease system, caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania and transmitted to humans by the vector Lutzomyia spp. Since it is listed as a neglected disease according to the World Health Organization, the aim of this study was to determine the current and future niche of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Neotropical region. We built the ecological niche model (ENM) of cutaneous (N= 2 910 occurrences) and visceral (N= 851 occurrences) leishmaniasis using MaxEnt algorithm. Nine bioclimatic variables (BIO1, BIO4, BIO5, BIO6, BIO7, BIO12, BIO13, BIO14, BIO15 (downloaded from the Worldclim) and disease occurrences data were used for the construction of ENM for three periods (current, 2050 and 2070) and four climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 y 8.5). We analyzed the number of pixels occupied, identity niche, modified niche (stable, loss, and gain) and seasonality. Our analyses indicated the expansion for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), a comparison for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). We rejected the null hypothesis of niche identity between CL and VL with Hellinger&#8217;s index = 0.91 (0.92-0.98) and Schoener&#8217;s Index = 0.67 (0.85-1.00) but with an overlap niche of 56.3 %. The differences between the two leishmaniasis types were detected in relation to RCP scenarios and niche shifts (area gained / loss). Seasonality was more important for CL. We provided a current picture of CL and VL distributions and the predicted distributional changes associated to different climate change scenarios for the Neotropical region. We can anticipate that increasing range is likely although it will depend locally on the future trends in weather seasonality. Rev. Biol. Trop. 64 (3): 1237-1245. Epub 2016 September 01.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[neotropical]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[leishmaniasis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[nicho ecológico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estacionalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[neotropical]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[leishmaniasis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ecological niche]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[seasonal]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Identification of risk areas for visceral leishmaniasis in Teresina, Piaui state, Brazil]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Almeida]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[de Andrade]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Werneck]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>84</volume>
<numero>5</numero>
<issue>5</issue>
<page-range>681-7</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alvar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vélez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I. D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bern]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Herrero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Desjeux]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Leishmaniasis worldwide and global estimates of its incidence]]></article-title>
<collab>WHO Leishmaniasis Control Team</collab>
<source><![CDATA[PLoS ONE]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>7</volume>
<numero>5</numero>
<issue>5</issue>
<page-range>e35671</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Evaluating predictive models of species&#8217; distributions: criteria for selecting optimal models]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Anderson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lew]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Peterson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. T.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Ecological Modelling]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<volume>162</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>211-32</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Araújo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Thuiller]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pearson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Biogeography]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<page-range>1712-28</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Climate change in the 21st century simulated bye HadGEM-AO under representative concentration pathways]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baek]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lee]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lee]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hyun]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y. K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cho]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kwon]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W. T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Byun]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>49</volume>
<numero>5</numero>
<issue>5</issue>
<page-range>603-18</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barve]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Tool for Partial-ROC versión 1]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Lawrence, KS, USA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Biodiversity Institute]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Impacto de los eventos de El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sobre la leishmaniosis cutánea en Sucre, Venezuela, a través del uso de información satelital, 1994-2003]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cabaniel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rada]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Blanco]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-Morales]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Escalera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Revista Peruana de Medicina Experimental de Salud Pública]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>32-8</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Caminade]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kovats]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rocklov]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tompkins]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Morse]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Colón-González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lloyd]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>111</volume>
<numero>9</numero>
<issue>9</issue>
<page-range>3286-91</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Impact of climate variability in the occurrence of leishmaniasis in northeastern Colombia]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cárdenas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sandoval]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-Morales]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Franco-Paredes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<volume>75</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>273-7</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Application of spatiotemporal scan statistics for the detection of areas with increased risk for American visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Bahia, Brazil]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carneiro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bavia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rocha]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tavares]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cardim]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alemayehu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Geospatial Health]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>2</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>113-26</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Transmission of cutaneous leishmaniasis associated with cacao (Theobroma cacao) plantations in Tabasco]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carrada-Figueroa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leal-Ascencio]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jiménez-Sastré]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López-Álvarez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Gaceta Médica de México]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>150</volume>
<page-range>494-502</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Climate cycle and forecasts of cutaneous leishmaniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne disease]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chaves]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L. F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pascual]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[PLoS Medicine]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>e123</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fluctuations are associated with El Niño in Panamá]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chaves]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L. F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Calzada]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valderrama]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Saldaña]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>8</volume>
<numero>10</numero>
<issue>10</issue>
<page-range>e3210</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Spatial correlation between Phlebotomus papatasi Scopoli (Diptera: Psychodidae) and incidence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Tunisia]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chelbi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kaabi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bejaoui]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Derbali]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhioua]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Medical Entomology]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<volume>46</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>400-2</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Spacetime cluster analysis of America visceral leishmaniasis in Bauru, Sao Paulo State, Brazil]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Feijó]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Paes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Amaku]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ferreira]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[dos Santos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ferreira]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Caderno do Saúde Pública]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>28</volume>
<numero>10</numero>
<issue>10</issue>
<page-range>1949-64</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Araújo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Burgess]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N. D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Foden]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gutsche]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rahbek]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cabeza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Biogeography]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>41</volume>
<page-range>724-35</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Climate change and risk of leishmaniasis in North America: Predictions from ecological niche models of vector and reservoirs species]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[O.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Strutz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González-Salazar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez-Cordero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sarkar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>e585</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Climate projections for ecologist]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Harris]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grose]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lee]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bindoff]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Porfirio]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fox-Hughes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[WIREs Climate change]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>5</volume>
<page-range>621-237</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Incorporating climate change and exotic species into forecasts of Riparian Forest Distribution]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ikeda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grady]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K. C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shuster]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Whitham]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[PLoS ONE]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>9</volume>
<numero>9</numero>
<issue>9</issue>
<page-range>e107037</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Cambio climático 2007. Informe de síntesis. Contribución de los grupos de trabajo I, II, III al Cuarto Informe de evaluación del Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el cambio climático]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ginebra, Suiza ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contributions of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[United Kingdom and New York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Cambridge University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Predicting geographic variation in cutaneous leishmaniasis, Colombia]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[King]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Campbell-Lendrum]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Davies]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Emerging Infectious Diseases]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>598-607</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Geographic information system-based analysis of the spatial and spatio-temporal distribution of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Golestan Province, Nort-East of Iran]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mollalo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alimohammadi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shirzadi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Malek]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Zoonoses Public Health]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>62</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>18-28</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in climate change scenarios]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Moo-Llanes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ibarra-Cerdeña]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C. N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rebollar-Téllez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ibáñez-Bernal]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramsey]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>7</volume>
<numero>9</numero>
<issue>9</issue>
<page-range>e2421</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B25">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Ecological niche modeling for visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Bahia, Brazil, using genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction and growing degree day-water budget analysis]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nieto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Malone]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bavia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Geospatial Health]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<volume>1</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>115-26</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B26">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Lutzomyia vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Southern Brazil: ecological niche models, predicted geographic distributions, and climate change effects]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Peterson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shaw]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[International Journal of Parasitology]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<volume>33</volume>
<numero>9</numero>
<issue>9</issue>
<page-range>919-31</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B27">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Peterson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Papes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soberón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Ecological Modelling]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>213</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>63-72</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B28">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Phillips]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Anderson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Schapire]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Ecological Modelling]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<volume>190</volume>
<numero>3-4</numero>
<issue>3-4</issue>
<page-range>231-59</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B29">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Global distributions maps of the leishmaniases]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Piggot]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bhatt]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Golding]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Duda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Battle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Brady]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[O. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hay]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S. I.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[eLife]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<page-range>e02851</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B30">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Global database of leishmaniasis occurrence locations, 19602012]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pigott]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Golding]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Messina]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Battle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Duda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Balard]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hay]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S. I.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Scientific Data]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>1</volume>
<page-range>140036</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B31">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Environmental modelling of visceral leishmaniasis by susceptibility-mapping using neural networks: a case study in north-western Iran.]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rajabi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mansourian]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pilesjo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bazmani]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Geospatial Health]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>9</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>179-91</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B32">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramsey]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Moo-Llanes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Danis-Lozano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pinto-Castillo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ibarra-Cerdeña]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C. N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[CasasMartinez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Peligro de exposición actual y futuro para Dengue, Chagas, leishmaniasis y Paludismo en México]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[CONACyT / SEMARNAT-0108158]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B33">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Ecological study and risk mapping of visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic area of Iran based on a geographical information systems approach.]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salahi-Moghaddam]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mohebali]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Moshfae]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Habibi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zarei]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Geospatial Health]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>5</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>71-7</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B34">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Leishmaniasis transmission: distribution and coarseresolution ecology of two vectors and two parasites in Egypt]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Samy]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Campbell]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L. P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Peterson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. T.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>47</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>57-62</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B35">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Climate change and marine molluscs of the western North Atlantic: future prospects and perils]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Saupe]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hendricks]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Peterson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lieberman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Biogeography]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>41</volume>
<page-range>1352-66</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B36">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Risk map for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Ethiopia based on environmental factors as revealed by geographical information systems and statistics]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Seid]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gadisa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tsegaw]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Abera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Teshome]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mulugeta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Herrero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aseffa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Geospatial Health]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>8</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>377-87</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B37">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shrestha]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[U. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bawa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[PLoS ONE]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>9</volume>
<numero>9</numero>
<issue>9</issue>
<page-range>e106405</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B38">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Risk assessment for Iberian birds under global change]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Triviño]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cabeza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Thuiller]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hickler]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Araújo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Biological Conservation]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>168</volume>
<page-range>192-200</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B39">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[ENMtools: a toolbox for comparative studies of environmental niche models]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Warren]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Glor]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Turelli]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Ecography]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>33</volume>
<page-range>607-11</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B40">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>WHO-World Health Organization</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Control of the leishmaniasis]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Geneva, Switzerland ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[World Health Organization Technical Report]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
