<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2215-3896</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Ciencias Ambientales]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Ciencias Ambientales]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2215-3896</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2215-38962024000100005</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15359/rca.58-1.7</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelado de idoneidad ambiental e implicaciones del cambio climático en la distribución de Pseudotsuga menziesii (MIRB.) Franco para México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Environmental suitability modeling and implications of climate change on the distribution of Pseudotsuga menziesii (MIRB.) Franco for Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-Ruiz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rodolfo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Juárez-Agis]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García-Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Silberio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Olivier-Salome]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Branly]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortiz-Bermúdez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Enrique]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez-Barrios]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rocío]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR) Maestría en Ciencias en Recursos Naturales y Desarrollo Rural ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[San Cristóbal de Las Casas ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero Escuela Superior de Ciencias Ambientales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Acapulco ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero Escuela Superior de Ciencias Ambientales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Acapulco ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero Escuela Superior de Ciencias Ambientales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Acapulco ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Biología ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af6">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Biología ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>58</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2215-38962024000100005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2215-38962024000100005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2215-38962024000100005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  (Introducción) Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco es una especie forestal de gran importancia por sus servicios ecosistémicos y su comercialización. Actualmente, se ha documentado que el cambio climático está afectando las poblaciones del norte del continente; sin embargo, no se ha evaluado cómo afectaría esto a la distribución de la especie en el futuro.  (Objetivo)  El objetivo de este trabajo fue modelar la idoneidad ambiental y la distribución potencial de P. menziesii en 3 periodos (2040, 2060 y 2080).  (Metodología)  Se estimó la idoneidad y distribución potencial, con base en registros y variables bioclimáticas, con ayuda de MaxEnt; se realizaron transferencias a 2 escenarios de emisiones de carbono en 3 periodos; por último, se evaluó la pérdida de extensión y disminución de idoneidad ambiental en porcentaje.  (Resultados) P. menziesii tiene una distribución potencial actual de 164 110 km2, las zonas con mayor idoneidad ambiental (&gt; 0.5) se ubicaron en el norte del país, específicamente en los estados del norte. No obstante, bajo los escenarios de cambio climático, estas áreas sufrieron mayor disminución de la idoneidad ambiental (&gt; 50 %) y se redujo su extensión entre 50.7 % y 92.6 %; en contraste, las poblaciones más resilientes contra el cambio climático fueron las del sur.  (Conclusiones) Pseudotsuga menziesii se ve favorecida por las bajas temperaturas, debido a esto, se espera un decrecimiento drástico en su distribución potencial. Aunada a ello, la idoneidad ambiental bajará a más del 50 % en las regiones norte de la nación. Con una pérdida drástica de superficie, la prevalencia de la especie pudiera encontrarse en un punto de declive.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  (Introduction) Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco is a forest species of great importance for its ecosystem services and commercialization. Currently, it has been documented that climate change is affecting populations in the north of the continent; Nevertheless, how these changes will affect the distribution of the species in the future has not been assessed.  (Objective)  The objective of this work was to model the environmental suitability and potential distribution of P. menziesii in 3 time periods (2040, 2060 and 2080).  (Methodology)  Environmental suitability and potential distribution were estimated based on records and bioclimatic variables with the help of MaxEnt; transfers were made to 2 scenarios of carbon emissions in 3 time periods; finally, the loss of extension and decrease of environmental suitability were evaluated as a percentage.  (Results) P. menziesii has a current potential distribution of 164 110 km2, the areas with the highest environmental suitability (&gt; 0.5) were located in the north of the country, specifically in the states of north. However, under the climate change scenarios, these zones suffered a greater decrease in their environmental suitability of &gt; 50 %, and their extension was reduced between 50.7 % and 92.6 %, in contrast, the most resilient populations to climate change were those in the south.  (Conclusions) Pseudotsuga menziesii is favored by low temperatures, due to this, a drastic reduction in its potential distribution is expected, coupled with this, environmental suitability will drop to more than 50 % in the northern regions of the country. With a drastic loss of area, the prevalence of the species could be at a point of decline.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[distribución potencial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[calentamiento global]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pinaceae]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[global warming]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Pinaceae]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[potential distribution]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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