<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2215-3470</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Uniciencia]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Uniciencia]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2215-3470</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2215-34702022000100208</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15359/ru.36-1.12</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Distribución de vacuna COVID-19: Combinando SEIR y Machine Learning]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: Combining SEIR and Machine Learning]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Distribuição de vacinas COVID-19: Combinando SEIR e Machine Learning]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López-Sandoval]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Gerardo Barrios Vicerrectoría de Investigación ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[San Miguel ]]></addr-line>
<country>El Salvador</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>36</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>208</fpage>
<lpage>222</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2215-34702022000100208&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2215-34702022000100208&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2215-34702022000100208&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este estudio tiene como objetivo general construir un modelo epidémico con control por vacunación para el Covid-19 en El Salvador. Se propone la combinación de modelos epidemiológicos SEIR (Susceptibles, Expuestos, Infectados o Recuperados) y la estimación de parámetros usando machine learning y redes de contacto. El proyecto se desarrolló siguiendo tres fases: a) Análisis: se realizó la identificación de factores o variables críticas o claves del fenómeno en estudio, se definió, diseñó y construyó el modelo a utilizar junto con sus parámetros y componentes. b) Simulación: una vez construido el modelo, se desarrolla una simulación de este. La simulación permitió modificar variables, implementar alternativas y hacer modificaciones al modelo sin afectar al sistema real, lo cual es de gran utilidad en la toma de decisiones y elaboración de resultados y recomendaciones. Se desarrollan las simulaciones con datos poblacionales de El Salvador. c) Optimización: se evaluaron diferentes escenarios en los cuales se aplican medidas de control por vacunación y medidas de distanciamiento social, con el objetivo de identificar la estrategia óptima. Como resultado del estudio se identificó como mejor estrategia para el control de la enfermedad: vacunar a la población vulnerable y mantener medidas de distanciamiento social, la combinación de estas dos políticas brindó los mejores resultados en función de disminuir el impacto de la infección y de minimizar los costos del tratamiento. Al final, se brindan recomendaciones a las autoridades de salud gubernamentales para la distribución y aplicación del tratamiento.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The purpose of this study is to build an epidemic model with vaccination control for Covid-19 in El Salvador. A combination of epidemiological SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious or Recovered) models and the estimation of parameters using machine learning and contact networks is proposed. The project consisted of three phases: a) Analysis: the critical or key factors or variables of the phenomenon under study were identified, the model to be used, as well as its parameters and components, were defined, designed, and constructed b) Simulation: simulation made it possible to modify variables, implement alternatives, and modify the model itself without affecting the real system, which is highly useful for decision-making and preparing results and recommendations. The simulations were carried out using population data from El Salvador. c) Optimization: different scenarios were evaluated in which vaccination control measures and social distancing measures were applied, in order to identify the optimal strategy. As a result of this study, the best strategy for controlling the disease was identified: a combination of vaccinating the vulnerable population and maintaining social distancing measures provided the best results in terms of reducing the impact of infection and minimizing treatment costs. Finally, recommendations are made to government health authorities for distribution and application of the treatment.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo Este estudo tem como objetivo geral construir um modelo epidêmico com controle por vacinação para a Covid-19 em El Salvador. Propõe-se a combinação de modelos epidemiológicos SEIR (Suscetíveis, Expostos, Infectados ou Recuperados) e a estimativa de parâmetros utilizando machine learning e redes de contato. O projeto foi desenvolvido a partir de três fases: a) Análise: foi realizada a identificação de fatores ou variáveis críticas ou chave do fenômeno em estudo, o modelo a ser utilizado foi definido, desenhado e construído juntamente com seus parâmetros e componentes. b) Simulação: uma vez que o modelo é construído, uma simulação dele é desenvolvida. A simulação permitiu modificar variáveis, implementar alternativas e fazer modificações no modelo sem afetar o sistema real, o que é muito útil na tomada de decisão e na elaboração de resultados e recomendações. Simulações são desenvolvidas com dados populacionais de El Salvador. c) Otimização: foram avaliados diferentes cenários em que são aplicadas medidas de controle de vacinação e medidas de distanciamento social, com o objetivo de identificar a estratégia ideal. Como resultado do estudo foi identificada como a melhor estratégia para o controle da doença: vacinar a população vulnerável e manter medidas de distanciamento social, a combinação dessas duas políticas proporcionou os melhores resultados em termos de redução de impacto da infecção e minimização dos custos do tratamento. No final, são fornecidas recomendações às autoridades governamentais de saúde para a distribuição e a aplicação do tratamento.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[SEIR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Machine Learning]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelo Epidemiológico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Vacunación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[El Salvador]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[SEIR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Machine Learning]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Epidemic Model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Vaccination]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[El Salvador]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[SEIR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[machine learning]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[modelo epidemiológico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[vacinação]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[El Salvador]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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