<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1659-0201</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Población y Salud en Mesoamérica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[PSM]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1659-0201</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Costa Rica. Centro Centroamericano de Población]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1659-02012022000200117</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15517/psm.v20i1.49927</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelación espacial bayesiana de la estructura de los hogares y la fecundidad en municipios de México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Trajectories of frailty and related factors of elderly people in Mexico spatial bayesian modeling of household structure and fertility in municipalities of Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Núñez Medina]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gerardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio de la Frontera Norte  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>20</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>117</fpage>
<lpage>142</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1659-02012022000200117&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1659-02012022000200117&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1659-02012022000200117&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El trabajo busca modelar el efecto de diferentes patrones de composición de hogares sobre los niveles observados de fecundidad en los municipios de México al año 2020, se trata de una investigación de tipo cuantitativo de cohorte transversal basada en la aplicación de métodos bayesianos espaciales. La hipótesis sostiene que la presencia de un mayor porcentaje de hogares familiares debería impactar en mayores tasas de fecundidad municipales. La metodología comprende la implementación de dos modelos gaussianos latentes. Un modelo nulo busca determinar si los patrones observados de fecundidad se asocian a algún mecanismo sociodemográfico o, al contrario, surgieron aleatoriamente, y otro modelo con covariables, cuyo objetivo es replicar el comportamiento de la fecundidad evaluando las consecuencias de la proporción de hogares nucleares, ampliados y compuestos presentes en los municipios. Los resultados obtenidos a partir de la estimación del modelo nulo confirmaron la existencia de una relación directa entre el aumento del índice de hogares nucleares y ampliados y el de la fecundidad municipal. Sin embargo, se puede concluir que el nivel alcanzado de fecundidad de reemplazo es producto de marcadas diferencias entre municipios, originadas por la presencia de una tipología heterogénea de hogares inmersos en contextos geográficos, sociales y culturales dispares.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This paper seeks to model the effect that different patterns of household composition have on the observed levels of fertility in the municipalities of Mexico in the year 2020; it is a quantitative cross-sectional cohort research based on the application of spatial Bayesian methods. The hypothesis is that the presence of a higher percentage of family households should have an impact on higher municipal fertility rates. The methodology involves the implementation of two latent Gaussian models. One null model, which seeks to determine whether the observed fertility patterns were generated by some socio-demographic mechanism or, on the contrary, arose randomly, and two, a model with covariates whose objective is to replicate the behavior of fertility by evaluating the effect of the proportion of nuclear, extended and compound households present in municipalities. The results obtained from estimation of null model confirm the existence of a direct relationship between increase in the proportion of nuclear and extended households and the increase of municipal fertility. However, it can be concluded that the level of replacement fertility reached by Mexico in the year 2020 is the product of marked differences between municipalities; differences originated by the presence of a heterogeneous typology of households immersed in disparate geographic, social and cultural contexts.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tasa global de fecundidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tipología de hogares]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[INLA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Total fertility rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[household typology]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[INLA]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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