<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1659-0201</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Población y Salud en Mesoamérica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[PSM]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1659-0201</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Costa Rica. Centro Centroamericano de Población]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1659-02012022000200099</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15517/psm.v20i1.49013</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles en Argentina: modelo y pronósticos por sexo y edad]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Chronic non-communicable diseases in Argentina: Model and forecast by sex and age]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Del Luján Tosello]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Joana María]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Andreozzi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lucía]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Rosario  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Argentina</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Rosario  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Argentina</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>20</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>99</fpage>
<lpage>116</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1659-02012022000200099&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1659-02012022000200099&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1659-02012022000200099&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Las enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles (ECNT) son padecimientos intransferibles por contacto de persona a persona y se caracterizan por su evolución generalmente lenta. En Argentina, son la principal causa de muerte y discapacidad, solo dos grupos de estas (cardiovasculares y cáncer) son responsables de la mitad del total de las muertes y del 27 % de los años de vida potencialmente perdidos (AVPP). El objetivo general de este trabajo cuantitativo, transversal y descriptivo es describir y analizar el perfil según edad y sexo de las tasas de mortalidad por ECNT en Argentina, a partir del modelo para datos funcionales (MDF) de Hyndman y Ullah (2007). Dicho método permite, además, pronosticar el comportamiento de los índices al considerar los cambios relacionados con la edad y la tendencia observada a través del tiempo. La diferencia relativa en la mortalidad entre el inicio del periodo de estudio (1985 a 2014) y el pronóstico para el año 2025 indica que, de continuar el comportamiento imperante, se alcanzarían descensos de alrededor del 50 % para hombres de entre 30 y 50 años y del 20 % para mujeres de entre 20 y 35 años. Estos resultados apuntan, de un modo más general, a que las tasas de mortalidad de los grupos etarios menores de 70 años, cuyas defunciones se denominan prematuras, son claramente descendentes para ambos sexos, aunque el caso de los hombres destaca, pues, si bien presentan mayores tasas de mortalidad por ECNT, el descenso es más marcado.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD) are diseases that are not transmitted from person to person and that are characterized by their generally slow evolution. In Argentina, NCDs are the main cause of death and disability, only two groups of causes (cardiovascular and cancer) are responsible for half of all deaths and 27 % of years of life potentially lost (YPLL). The general objective of this work, a quantitative, cross-sectional and descriptive study, is to describe and analyze the profile by age and sex of the mortality rates due to NCD in men and women in Argentina, based on the implementation of the model for functional data (MDF) by Hyndman and Ullah (2007). This model also makes it possible to forecast the behavior of mortality rates for both sexes, taking into account the changes related to age and the trend observed over time during the period 1985-2014. The relative difference in mortality between the beginning of the study period and the forecast for the year 2025 indicates that, if the prevailing behavior in rates continues, decreases of around 50 % would be achieved for men between 30 and 50 years of age. While for women the greatest decreases (of around 20 %) would be observed between the ages of 20 and 35. These results would indicate, in a more general way, that the behavior of the mortality rates of the age groups under 70 years, whose deaths are called ''premature&#8221;, is of a clear decrease for both sexes, highlighting that, in the case of men, although they have higher NCD mortality rates, this decrease is more marked.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Functional Data Models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Demographic probabilistic projections]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelo para datos funcionales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronósticos probabilísticos demográficos]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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