<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1409-3871</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Lankesteriana]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Lankesteriana]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1409-3871</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Lankester Botanical Garden, University of Costa Rica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1409-38712017000100017</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15517/lank.v17i1.27999</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Orchid Distribution and Bioclimatic Niches as a Strategy to Climate Change in Areas Of Tropical Dry Forest In Colombia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reina-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Guillermo A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rubiano Mejía]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jorge E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Castro Llanos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fabio A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soriano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ignasi]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Barcelona Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences Section of Botany and Mycology]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Barcelona ]]></addr-line>
<country>ES</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Valle University Department of Geography ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>CO</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>17</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>17</fpage>
<lpage>47</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1409-38712017000100017&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1409-38712017000100017&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1409-38712017000100017&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[AbstractClimate change projections in Colombia predict an average increase in temperature of 2.6°C and in precipitation of 20% by the end of the century. These changes would directly affect the tropical dry forest (TDF) and its biodiversity. Epiphytic orchids, more exposed to the atmosphere than the terrestrial biota, remain dependent on climatic variables, making them particularly susceptible to climate change. We studied the spatial and temporal changes of a focal group of 12 orchid species typical of the TDF in Colombia, and the future conservation areas to this ecosystem. The algorithm used by MaxEnt was employed for modelling. A total of 439 records: direct observations (276); herbaria collections (159) and bibliographical sources (4) collected since September 2009 to April 2015 were considered for use in training the model. The actual potential niche was compared to the SRES 8.5 climate change emissions scenario for two periods: 2020-2049 (2030) and 2040-2069 (2050). The results indicate an altitudinal displacement compared to the present, conditioned by variables such as temperature, accessibility and precipitation. Mid-mountain areas (1300-1700 m) increased their idoneity in future potential niche models (2030 and 2050) to the detriment of the lowlands (0-1000 m). Other variables analysed, such as distance thresholds of pollinators (Euglossini), availability of phorophytes, and distances to TDF cover and protected areas, all suggest an improving connectivity between the lowland and mid-mountain areas. Consequently, bioclimatic niches (BN) are proposed as a new landscape management unit. Throughout the country, 69 of these BN were located as an adaptation-conservation strategy against climate change in the TDF in Colombia.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[ResumenLas proyecciones del cambio climático en Colombia, indican en promedio un incremento en 2.6°C de temperatura y 20% de la precipitación para el fin del siglo. Estos cambios afectarán directamente al bosque seco tropical (Bs-T) y su biodiversidad. Las orquídeas epífitas, más expuestas a la atmósfera que la biota terrestre mantienen dependencia de variables ligadas al clima. Esta condición las hace particularmente susceptibles al cambio climático. Nosotros estudiamos los cambios espacio-temporales de un grupo focal de 12 especies de orquídeas típicas del Bs-T en Colombia y las futuras áreas de conservación de este ecosistema. El algoritmo usado por MaxEnt fue empleado para el modelamiento. Un total de 439 registros: observaciones directas (276); registros de herbario (159) y fuentes bibliográficas (4), colectadas desde septiembre de 2009 hasta abril 2015 fueron consideradas para entrenar el modelo. El nicho potencial actual fue comparado con el escenario de emisiones de cambio climático SRES 8.5 para dos periodos: 2020-2049 (2030) y 2040-2069 (2050). Los resultados indican un desplazamiento altitudinal respecto al presente, condicionado por variables como: temperatura, accesibilidad, y precipitación. Las áreas de montaña media (1300-1700 m) incrementarán su idoneidad en los modelos de nicho potencial futuro (2030 y 2050) en detrimento de las tierras bajas (0-1000 m). Otras variables analizadas como umbrales de distancia en polinizadores (Euglossini), disponibilidad de forófitos, distancias a coberturas de Bs-T y áreas protegidas, sugieren mejorar la conectividad entre tierras bajas y áreas de montaña media. En consecuencia, los nichos bioclimáticos (BN) son propuestos como nueva unidad de manejo del paisaje. En todo el país, 69 de ellos fueron localizados como estrategia de adaptación-conservación frente al cambio climático en áreas de Bs-T en Colombia.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[bioclimatic niches]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Euglossini]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[orchids]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Bosque seco tropical]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Euglossini]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[nichos bioclimáticos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[orquídeas]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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<page-range>63-102</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
