<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0034-7744</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Biología Tropical]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. biol. trop]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0034-7744</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Costa Rica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0034-77442025000200013</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15517/rev.biol.trop..v73is1.64044</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Climate Change Scenarios in the Southern Caribbean region of Central America]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Escenarios de Cambio Climático en la Región del Caribe Sur de América Central]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alfaro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eric-J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A a"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A3"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hidalgo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Hugo-G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A a"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A4"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pérez-Briceño]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Paula-Marcela]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Calderón-Solera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Blanca]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Costa Rica Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI) ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ San José]]></addr-line>
<country>Costa Rica</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Costa Rica Escuela de Física ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ San José]]></addr-line>
<country>Costa Rica</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Costa Rica Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR) ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ San José]]></addr-line>
<country>Costa Rica</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Costa Rica Centro de Investigación en Matemática Pura y Aplicada (CIMPA) ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ San José]]></addr-line>
<country>Costa Rica</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Costa Rica Escuela de Geografía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ San José]]></addr-line>
<country>Costa Rica</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>73</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0034-77442025000200013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0034-77442025000200013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0034-77442025000200013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Introduction:  Warming is already significant in Central America and the Caribbean and may be magnified even further in the future. A decrease in the precipitation is projected, increasing also regional aridity.  Objective:  To study observed and projected latitudinal gradients for precipitation and temperature in three Southern Caribbean locations of Central America: Bluefields (Nicaragua), Limón (Costa Rica) and Bocas del Toro (Panamá) and to characterize their future changes and determine if there are differences or similarities in a north-south direction.  Methods:  Monthly precipitation (P) and temperature (T) data from General Circulation Models from 1979 to 2099, were downloaded from the WRF repository. Data from the selected models from the repository were subjected to a delta-type statistical downscaling to bring them to a resolution of 1 x 1 km. These models are part of the latest generation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 6 used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The ground-truth data necessary for bias correction were obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis. Monthly P and T data were downloaded from 1979 to 2014 at different native spatial resolutions and climatologies at 1 x 1 km spatial resolution at global scales were obtained from WorldClim data.  Results:  Scenarios show that some regions would go from very humid to humid, based on strong reductions in precipitation and warming at the end of the 21st century. This expected increase in the aridity is going to have impacts on ecology and ecosystem services, agriculture, human consumption due to a water availability reduction per capita and hydroelectric generation.  Conclusions:  Generation of high spatial Climate Change scenarios is necessary because Central America is a region characterized by significant topographic complexity, land use variety and spatial occurrence of hydrometeorological disasters. This intrinsic variability suggests that local risk management and planning strategies must be designed with a highly specific approach to each locality or region. This implies that, even in areas geographically near to each other, the measures taken may not necessarily be transferable due to differences in climate projections, as it was found for the three nearby communities in the Southern Central American Caribbean coastal region.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Introducción:  El calentamiento ya es significativo en América Central y el Caribe y puede magnificarse aún más en el futuro. Se proyecta también una disminución en la precipitación, aumentando la aridez regional.  Objetivo:  Estudiar los gradientes latitudinales observados y proyectados para la precipitación y la temperatura en tres localidades del Caribe Sur de América Central: Bluefields (Nicaragua), Limón (Costa Rica) y Bocas del Toro (Panamá) y caracterizar sus cambios futuros y determinar si existen diferencias o similitudes en una dirección norte-sur.  Métodos:  Los datos mensuales de precipitación (P) y temperatura (T) de los Modelos de Circulación General de 1979 a 2099, fueron descargados del repositorio WRF. Los datos de los modelos seleccionados del repositorio fueron sometidos a un ajuste de escala estadístico de tipo delta para llevarlos a una resolución de 1 x 1 km. Estos modelos son parte de la última generación del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Acoplados-Fase 6 utilizado por el Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático. Los datos necesarios para la corrección de sesgos se obtuvieron del reanálisis ERA5. Los datos mensuales de P y T se descargaron de 1979 a 2014 en diferentes resoluciones espaciales nativas y las climatologías con resolución espacial de 1 x 1 km a escala global se obtuvieron de los datos de WorldClim.  Resultados:  Los escenarios muestran que algunas regiones pasarían de muy húmedas a húmedas, con base en fuertes reducciones en la precipitación y el calentamiento a finales del siglo XXI. Este aumento esperado en la aridez tendrá impactos en la ecología y los servicios ecosistémicos, la agricultura, el consumo humano debido a una reducción en la disponibilidad de agua per cápita y la generación hidroeléctrica.  Conclusiones:  La generación de escenarios de Cambio Climático de alta resolución es necesaria porque América Central es una región caracterizada por una importante complejidad topográfica, variedad de usos del suelo y ocurrencia espacial de desastres hidrometeorológicos. Esta variabilidad intrínseca sugiere que las estrategias locales de gestión y planificación de riesgos deben diseñarse con un enfoque altamente específico para cada localidad o región. Esto implica que, incluso en zonas geográficamente cercanas entre sí, las medidas adoptadas pueden no necesariamente ser transferibles debido a las diferencias en las proyecciones climáticas, como se encontró para las tres comunidades cercanas en la región costera del Caribe Sur de América Central.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[precipitation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[air surface temperature]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[downscaling]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[scenarios.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Precipitación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[temperatura superficial del aire]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cambio Climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ajuste de escala]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[escenarios.]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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