<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0034-7744</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Biología Tropical]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. biol. trop]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0034-7744</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Costa Rica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0034-77442013000100025</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The effect of highly variable topography on the spatial distribution of Aniba perutilis (Lauraceae) in the Colombian Andes]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fagua]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A01"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cabrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Edersson]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A02"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gonzalez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Victor H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A03"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="A01">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi-IGAC  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Bogotá D.C.]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A02">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales-IDEAM  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Bogotá]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A03">
<institution><![CDATA[,Southwestern Oklahoma State University  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Lawrence Kansas]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>61</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>301</fpage>
<lpage>309</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0034-77442013000100025&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0034-77442013000100025&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0034-77442013000100025&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Topography is a factor that can significantly affect the diversity and the distribution of trees species in tropical forests. Aniba perutilis, a timber species listed as vulnerable to extinction, is widely distributed in Andean forest fragments, especially in those with highly variable topography. Based on field surveys and logistic regression analyses, we studied the population structure and the effect of highly variable topography on the spatial distribution of this tree in three protected forest fragments in the central Andes of Colombia. Individuals of A. perutilis were mainly found on mountain ridges and hills with gentle slopes; no individuals were found in valleys. Using a species distribution model with presence/absence data, we showed that the available habitat for A. perutilis is significantly smaller than the extension of the fragments and much smaller than the extension of the currently protected areas. Our results have important implications for the conservation of A. perutilis and likely for other threatened Andean tree species, which can also have locally restricted distributions due to highly variable local topography.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[La topografía es un factor que puede afectar considerablemente la diversidad y la distribución de las especies de árboles tropicales. Aniba perutilis, una especie de árbol maderable vulnerable a la extinción, está ampliamente distribuida en fragmentos de bosques andinos, especialmente en aquellos con topografía altamente variable. A partir de trabajo de campo y análisis de regresión logística, estudiamos la estructura de la población y los efectos de la topografía sobre la distribución espacial de este árbol en tres fragmentos de bosque en la cordillera central de Colombia que actualmente se encuentran protegidos. Los individuos de A. perutilis se encontraron principalmente en los filos de montaña y colinas con gradientes topográficos suaves; no se encontraron individuos en los valles. A partir de un modelo de distribución de especies usando datos de presencia/ausencia, mostramos que el hábitat disponible para A. perutilis es considerablemente más pequeño que la extensión de los fragmentos y mucho más reducido que la extensión actual de las áreas protegidas. Nuestros resultados tienen implicaciones importantes para la conservación de A. perutilis y probablemente otras especies de árboles andinos amenazados, los cuales pueden estar restringidos de forma similar debido a la variabilidad topográfica local.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[conservation biology]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forest fragments]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[logistic regression]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[species distribution models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[population structure]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[biología de la conservación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[fragmentos de bosque]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[regresión logística]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos de distribución de especies]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estructura poblacional]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><body><![CDATA[ <div style="text-align: justify;">     <div style="text-align: center;"><font style="font-weight: bold;"  size="4"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The effect of highly variable topography on the spatial distribution of <span  style="font-style: italic;">Aniba perutilis</span> (Lauraceae) in the Colombian Andes</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> </div> <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <div style="text-align: center;"><font size="2"><span  style="font-family: verdana;">Jos&eacute; C. Fagua<sup><a href="#1">1</a><a  name="4"></a>*</sup>, Edersson Cabrera<sup><a href="#2">2</a><a name="5"></a>*</sup>&nbsp; &amp; Victor H. Gonzalez<sup><a href="#3">3</a><a name="6"></a>*</sup></span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> </div> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></font><font  size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">    <br> <a name="Correspondencia2"></a>*<a href="#Correspondencia1">Direcci&oacute;n para correspondencia:</a><br style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></font><font size="2"></font> <hr style="width: 100%; height: 2px;"><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font style="font-weight: bold;" size="3"><span  style="font-family: verdana;">Abstract</span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Topography is a factor that can significantly affect the diversity and the distribution of trees species in tropical forests. <span style="font-style: italic;">Aniba perutilis</span>, a timber species listed as vulnerable to extinction, is widely distributed in Andean forest fragments, especially in those with highly variable topography. Based on field surveys and logistic regression analyses, we studied the population structure and the effect of highly variable topography on the spatial distribution of this tree in three protected forest fragments in the central Andes of Colombia. Individuals of <span  style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> were mainly found on mountain ridges and hills with gentle slopes; no individuals were found in valleys. Using a species distribution model with presence/absence data, we showed that the available habitat for <span  style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> is significantly smaller than the extension of the fragments and much smaller than the extension of the currently protected areas. Our results have important implications for the conservation of <span  style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> and likely for other threatened Andean tree species, which can also have locally restricted distributions due to highly variable local topography. </span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span  style="font-weight: bold;">Key words:</span> conservation biology, forest fragments, logistic regression, species distribution models, population structure.    <br>     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     </span></font><font style="font-weight: bold;" size="3"><span      style="font-family: verdana;">Resumen</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">La topograf&iacute;a     es un factor     que puede afectar considerablemente la diversidad y la     distribuci&oacute;n de las especies de &aacute;rboles tropicales. <span      style="font-style: italic;">Aniba     perutilis</span>, una especie de &aacute;rbol maderable&nbsp;     vulnerable&nbsp;     a&nbsp; la&nbsp; extinci&oacute;n,&nbsp; est&aacute;&nbsp; ampliamente     distribuida en fragmentos&nbsp; de bosques andinos, especialmente     en&nbsp; aquellos con topograf&iacute;a altamente variable.&nbsp; A     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[partir de trabajo de campo y an&aacute;lisis de regresi&oacute;n     log&iacute;stica, estudiamos la estructura&nbsp; de la poblaci&oacute;n     y los efectos de la topograf&iacute;a&nbsp; sobre la     distribuci&oacute;n espacial de este &aacute;rbol en&nbsp; tres     fragmentos de bosque en la&nbsp; cordillera&nbsp; central de Colombia     que actualmente se encuentran protegidos. Los individuos de <span      style="font-style: italic;">A.     perutilis</span> se encontraron principalmente en los filos de     monta&ntilde;a     y colinas con gradientes topogr&aacute;ficos suaves; no se encontraron     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[individuos en los valles. A partir de un modelo de distribuci&oacute;n     de especies usando datos de presencia/ausencia,&nbsp; mostramos que el     h&aacute;bitat disponible para <span style="font-style: italic;">A.     perutilis</span> es considerablemente     m&aacute;s peque&ntilde;o que la extensi&oacute;n de los fragmentos y     mucho m&aacute;s reducido que la extensi&oacute;n actual de las     &aacute;reas protegidas. Nuestros resultados tienen implicaciones     importantes para la conservaci&oacute;n de <span      style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> y probablemente     otras especies de &aacute;rboles andinos amenazados, los cuales pueden     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[estar restringidos de forma similar debido a la variabilidad     topogr&aacute;fica local.</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span      style="font-weight: bold;">Palabras&nbsp; clave:</span>     biolog&iacute;a de la conservaci&oacute;n,&nbsp; fragmentos de bosque,     regresi&oacute;n log&iacute;stica, modelos de distribuci&oacute;n de     especies, estructura poblacional.</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<hr style="width: 100%; height: 2px;"><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The tropical Andes     are one of the     most diverse areas in the world, containing about one-sixth of all     plant life in less than 1% of the world&#8217;s&nbsp; land&nbsp; area&nbsp;     (Kattan&nbsp; <span style="font-style: italic;">et&nbsp; al</span>.&nbsp;     2004). This ecosystem reaches its     maximum physical complexity and biological diversity in Colombia, where     it is divided into three main mountain ranges: the Western, Central,     and Eastern Cordilleras (Kattan <span style="font-style: italic;">et al</span>.     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[2004). Because of its diversity     of climates and ecosystems, that allow the production of a wide variety     of food, about 70% of Colombian population (~31 million of people) is     concentrated in the Andes, which has strongly transformed native     forests during the last century. Today, it is estimated that nearly     64.5% of the native Andean forests have been deforested during the past     40 years, especially in the central Andes (Cabrera <span      style="font-style: italic;">et al</span>. 2011). Most     of the remaining native forest is sparsely found in patches or relicts     along the Andes, especially in areas with highly variable topography     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[where it is difficult to establish crops and grazing pastures for     cattle ranching, the principal economic activities of this region.</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Topography at the     local scale is a     factor that significantly affects the diversity and distribution of     trees species in tropical and sub tropical forests (Oliveira-Filho <span      style="font-style: italic;">et     al</span>. 1994, Clark <span style="font-style: italic;">et al</span>.     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[1998, Oliveira <span style="font-style: italic;">et al</span>. 1998,     Gale 2000, Harms <span style="font-style: italic;">et     al</span>. 2001, Kubota <span style="font-style: italic;">et al</span>.     2004). Topographic changes (<span style="font-style: italic;">i.e</span>.,     variation of     topographic units and topography gradient) produce discontinuities in     edaphic conditions, thus affecting the establishment of trees (Clark <span      style="font-style: italic;">et     al</span>. 1998). The effects of topography on the distribution of     trees at     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[the local scale and their consequences on the landscape scale have not     been evaluated in any tree species of forest fragments in the tropical     Andes. Such studies are relevant to promote the conservation of     threatened tree species that are currently restricted to forest     fragments with highly variable topography, such as those of the     Colombian Andes.</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span      style="font-style: italic;">Aniba&nbsp; perutilis</span>&nbsp;     Hemsley&nbsp; (Lauraceae)&nbsp; is a good example of a tree species     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[restricted to such Andean forest fragments that is currently listed as     a species vulnerable to extinction due to habitat loss and     overexploitation (PRVCAB 1994,&nbsp; UICN&nbsp; 2001, Vargas&nbsp;     2002). This&nbsp; timber species, commonly&nbsp; known as &#8220;comino&#8221; or     &#8220;comino laurel&#8221;, is greatly esteemed for high-grade furniture, interior     trim, durable construction,&nbsp; and&nbsp; resistance&nbsp; to&nbsp;     the&nbsp; attack of termites (Bernal 1994). This species is widely     distributed in the Neotropical region, occurring&nbsp; from&nbsp;     lowlands&nbsp; to&nbsp; mid&nbsp; elevations (0-2 600m)&nbsp;     from&nbsp; Colombia&nbsp; to&nbsp; Bolivia.&nbsp; The species&nbsp;     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[becomes&nbsp; more&nbsp; abundant&nbsp; in Andean forests, and although     it was one of the most common trees in the &#8220;Cordillera Central&#8221; of     Colombia. Today it is rarely found (PRVCAB 1994,&nbsp; UICN&nbsp;     2001,&nbsp; Vargas&nbsp; 2002).&nbsp; Populations of <span      style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> in     Colombia have been identified in three forest fragments along the     Western flank of the Central Cordillera. These fragments (Bremen Forest     Reserve, Ot&uacute;n- Quimbaya Natural National Park, and the Canyon of     the Barbas River) are characterized by highly variable topography and     by being surrounded by plantations of exotic trees and grazing     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[pastures. To preserve these forest fragments, the state and federal     governments of Colombia have established protected areas around them     under the System of Protected Areas of Colombia (SINAP).</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In this study, we     sought to     determine if topography could affect the distribution of <span      style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span>     inside these forest remnants. If this is the case, it would seem likely     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[to find <span style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span>     restricted to certain areas within the fragments,     thus suggesting that the available habitat to <span      style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> would be     significantly smaller than the extension of the fragment and much     smaller than the extension of the protected area. To achieve this goal,     we studied the relationship among several independent environmental     variables and the probability of finding <span      style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> within the     fragments using field data and logistic regression analyses. We then     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[modeled the potential distribution of <span style="font-style: italic;">A.     perutilis</span> to estimate its     available habitat using field data and Geographic Information Systems     (GIS) tools.</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font style="font-weight: bold;" size="3"><span      style="font-family: verdana;">Materials and methods</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span      style="font-weight: bold;">Study site and species:</span> This study     was conducted from June 2005 to May 2006 on three large forest relicts     and the protected areas that&nbsp; enclose&nbsp; them&nbsp; on&nbsp;     the&nbsp; Western&nbsp; slope&nbsp; of the Cordillera Central of     Colombia (4&deg;38-42&#8217; N - 75&deg;32-38&#8217; W): The Canyon of the Barbas     River (CB), the Bremen Forest Reserve (BFR), and the National Natural     Park Ot&uacute;n-Quimbaya (NNPO). These three areas are located between     the departments of&nbsp; Risaralda&nbsp; and&nbsp; Quind&iacute;o,     at&nbsp; 1 600-2 000m&nbsp; (<a href="/img/revistas/rbt/v61n1/a25i1.jpg">Fig.&nbsp;     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[1</a>), are&nbsp; characterized by     their abrupt canyon formations, and are surrounded&nbsp; by&nbsp;     plantations&nbsp; of&nbsp; exotic&nbsp; grasses and trees (<span      style="font-style: italic;">Pinus     patula</span>, <span style="font-style: italic;">Cupressus</span> sp.     and <span style="font-style: italic;">Eucalyptus </span>sp.). The     rainy season is bimodal,     with a maximum from April to May and another from October to November.     The mean annual rainfall is 2 817mm and the mean monthly temperature is     16-24&deg;C. The vegetation is classified as subandean forest (sensu     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[Cuatrecasas 1958) or premontane moist forest, bmh-PM (sensu Holdridge     1947). Numerous threatened animal species inhabit these forest     fragments, such as <span style="font-style: italic;">Alouatta seniculus</span>     (Red howler monkey), <span style="font-style: italic;">Aotus     lemurinus</span> (Lemurine owl monkey), <span      style="font-style: italic;">Dinomys branicki</span> (Pacarana), <span      style="font-style: italic;">Penelope     perspicax</span> (Cauca guan), <span style="font-style: italic;">Aburria     aburri</span> (Wattled guan), and     <span style="font-style: italic;">Odontophorus hyperythrus</span>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[(Chestnut wood-quail) (PNNC 2007). Due to the     biological importance of these forest fragments, the Humboldt Institute     and other Colombian institutions are trying to develop biological     corridors that connect these three fragments.</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span      style="font-style: italic;">Aniba perutilis</span> is a large,     evergreen canopy tree that reaches over 30m in height and 2m in     diameter at maturity. The leaves are simple, coriaceous, lanceolate,     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[and are arranged alternately&nbsp; on&nbsp; the&nbsp; stems. The&nbsp;     flowers&nbsp; are&nbsp; small, bisexual, and brown to reddish-brown in     color. The fruit is a fleshy, oil-rich, pear-shaped drupe (PRVCAB&nbsp;     1994,&nbsp; Vargas&nbsp; 2002).&nbsp; The&nbsp; blooming&nbsp;     peak&nbsp; occurs&nbsp; through&nbsp; the&nbsp; drier&nbsp; months and     fruiting occurs through the rainy season (Alzate 1987). Seeds are     primarily dispersed by Oilbirds (Steatornis caripensis) and several     species of Toucans (Ramphastidae).</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[ style="font-family: verdana; font-weight: bold;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span      style="font-weight: bold;">Preliminary GIS analysis and field     methods: </span>A map&nbsp; of&nbsp; vegetation&nbsp; cover&nbsp;     types in the     study area was generated using Ikonos Imagine (spatial resolution 1m<sup>2</sup>);     field checks were done to improve the accuracy of these maps. We     identified and digitized the following&nbsp; vegetation&nbsp;     types:&nbsp; 1) Andean&nbsp; forests,&nbsp; 2) introduced grasslands,     3) plantations of exotic trees, 4) high shrubs, 5) intermediate shrubs,     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[6) low shrubs, 7), isolated trees, 8) cultivated lands, 9) rivers, and     10) roads. Using the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) STRM (Shuttle Radar     Topography Mission) at 30m<sup>2</sup> of spatial resolution,&nbsp;     and&nbsp;     our&nbsp; mapping&nbsp; of&nbsp; vegetation, we superimposed a grid of     300m<sup>2</sup>&nbsp;&nbsp; cells over these layers and chose the     cells that met     two criteria: i) Andean forest cover of at least 70% of cell because <span      style="font-style: italic;">A.     perutilis</span> is a canopy tree that grows inside mature forest, and     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[ii)     gentle topographic gradient (&lt;30&ordm;) of at least 30% within each     cell because areas with such a gradient are uncommon in these forest     fragments and our preliminary field data showed that <span      style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> is     predominantly found in areas with gentle topography. We found 85 cells     with these two criteria (37 in NNPO, 39 in FRB, and 9 in CB).</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We randomly selected     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[27 of the 85     cells (nine in each one of three fragments) and established a 10m wide     transect in each cell in the field using a GPS. The length of the     transect ranged from 60 to 100m due to canyon formations in the     fragments. Such transects were oriented perpendicular to the     topographic gradient lines and were divided every 5m into 5x10m2 plots.     In each plot, we recorded the topographic gradient, topographical units     (valley, hillside, and ridge), and altitude. In each 5x10m<sup>2</sup>     plot, a     census of all <span style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[individuals taller than 35cm was taken,     whereas individuals shorter than 35cm were taken in 1x10m<sup>2&nbsp;</sup>&nbsp;     plot nested within the 5x10m<sup>2</sup>&nbsp; plot. The diameter at     breast height     (DBH) and height of each individual was recorded in all plots. Based on     the DBH and Sturges&#8217; (1926) equation, individuals were grouped in the     following&nbsp; size classes: Class 1 (0-0.4cm), Class 2 (0.4-3cm),     Class 3 (3-6cm), Class 4 (6-9cm), Class 5 (9-12cm), Class 6 (12-15cm),     Class 7 (15-18cm), Class 8 (18-21cm), Class 9 (21-24cm), Class 10     (25-40cm), Class </span></font><font size="2"><span     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[ style="font-family: verdana;">11 (40-55cm), and Class 12     (&gt;55cm).</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br      style="font-family: verdana; font-weight: bold;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span      style="font-weight: bold;">Analysis of field data:</span> We used     multiple logistic regression (MLR) to estimate the relationships     between topographic gradient, topographical units (valley, hillside,     and ridge), and altitude (explanatory variables) with the probability     of finding <span style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> in     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[the forest fragments (response variable).     MLR estimates the probability of presence, P (y=1), of <span      style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span>     based on n explanatory variables.    <br> <br style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></font>     <div style="text-align: center;"><img alt=""  src="/img/revistas/rbt/v61n1/a25f1.jpg"  style="width: 259px; height: 36px;"><br style="font-family: verdana;"> </div> <br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">MLR is a special case of a generalized linear model that has suitable characteristics to analyze our data: 1) the response variable is binary (present/absent), which reduces effects of spatial autocorrelation (Lichstein <span  style="font-style: italic;">et al</span>. 2002) and pseudoreplication, 2) the explanatory variables can be numerical, categorical, binary or a mix of all them as in our case, and 3) the MLR model can be implemented into GIS to construct a map of potential distribution of the species. We applied two MLR analyses: 1) one to relate the probability of finding individuals taller than 35cm in the 454 plots (5x10m<sup>2</sup>) and 2) the other to relate the probability of finding individuals shorter than 35cm in height in the 454 nesting plots (5x1m<sup>2</sup>). Statistical analyses were done using Statistica 9.3 and SPSS 13.</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span  style="font-weight: bold;">Spatial Model of potential distribution:</span> We constructed four raster maps corresponding to the explanatory variables mentioned before (topographic gradients, valleys, hillsides, and ridges) in forest fragments areas. Topographic gradients, valleys, and ridges rasters were obtained from STRM DEM using ArcGIS 9.3; specifically we used the following tools: Slope for topographic gradients, Arc Hydro (Version 1.0 Beta 2; Maidment 2002) for valleys, and Raster Surface for ridges. Areas which were not classified as valleys or ridges were classified as hillside because forest fragments are canyons with highly variable topography and without flat areas. Maps were projected in Magna-Sirgas Datum of Colombia, region VI (scale 1:10 000). Subsequently, we constructed a map of potential distribution of <span style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> (raster of probability of finding <span style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span>) using a MLR model that takes into account the parameters of MLR of field data as follows:    <br>     <br> </span></font>     <div style="text-align: center;"><font size="2"><span  style="font-family: verdana;"><img alt=""  src="/img/revistas/rbt/v61n1/a25f2.jpg"  style="width: 367px; height: 35px;"></span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></font></div> <br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Maps were projected in WGS 84 (World Geodetic System 84) Datum and UTM (Universal Transverse Mercator) projection (scale 1:10 000).</span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"></font><br  style="font-family: verdana; font-weight: bold;"> <font style="font-weight: bold;" size="3"><span  style="font-family: verdana;">Results</span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The explanatory variable topographic gradient was highly correlated with the probability of finding <span style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> inside the forest fragments. The relationship was negative, and its magnitude was greater in individuals taller than 35cm (Wald=55.2, p&lt;0.0001) than in individuals shorter than 35cm (Wald=31.8, p&lt;0.0001) (<a href="/img/revistas/rbt/v61n1/a25i2.jpg">Fig. 2</a>); however, it was not statistically significantly different (X<sup>2</sup>=1.4, p=1.0). The topographical units, ridge and hillside, showed a significant relationship to the probability of finding <span style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> in both individuals shorter than 35cm (Wald=21.3, p&lt;0.0001; Wald=30.9, p&lt;0.0001, respectively) and individuals taller than 35cm (Wald =43.4, p&lt;0.0001; Wald=54.2, p&lt;0.0001). The remaining explanatory variables (valley and altitude) did not have a significant relationship. When&nbsp; forest&nbsp; fragments&nbsp; are&nbsp; treated&nbsp; in&nbsp; the&nbsp; analysis as&nbsp; explanatory&nbsp; variables,&nbsp; we&nbsp; found&nbsp; that&nbsp; CB and&nbsp; NNPO&nbsp; have&nbsp; a&nbsp; significant&nbsp; relationship to&nbsp; the&nbsp; probability&nbsp; of&nbsp; finding&nbsp; <span  style="font-style: italic;">A.&nbsp; perutilis</span>&nbsp; in both, short (CB: Wald=22.4, p=0.0001; NNPO: Wald=40.7, p=0.0001) and tall individuals (CB: Wald=22, p=0.0001; NNPO: Wald=24.7, p=0.0001), whereas FRB did not show a significant relationship. The distribution of size classes was not significantly different between NNPO and&nbsp; BF&nbsp; (X<sup>2</sup>=16.5,&nbsp; p=0.12),&nbsp; but&nbsp; they both were significantly different from BFR (BFR vs. BF: X<sup>2</sup>=904, p=0.000001; BFR vs. NNPO&nbsp; X<sup>2</sup>=775,&nbsp; p=0.000001).&nbsp; Individuals of the first five classes (DBH&lt;12cm) and last two size classes (DBH&gt;40cm) were found in similar proportions in NNPO and BF; individuals of the five intermediate classes were not found. Individuals of the first two classes (DBH&lt;3cm) were found only in BFR (<a  href="/img/revistas/rbt/v61n1/a25i3.jpg">Fig. 3</a>).</span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The model of spatial distribution of <span style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> showed that suitable habitat for this tree species (areas inside the fragments with a probability&nbsp; of&nbsp; finding&nbsp; <span style="font-style: italic;">A.&nbsp; perutilis</span>&nbsp; greater than&nbsp; 0.7)&nbsp; is&nbsp; less&nbsp; than&nbsp; half&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; current&nbsp; extension of the three protected areas combined, corresponding to 69%, 52%, and 47% of Andean forest covers of BFR, CB and NNPO, respectively (<a href="/img/revistas/rbt/v61n1/a25t1.gif">Table 1</a>; <a href="/img/revistas/rbt/v61n1/a25i4.jpg">Fig. 4</a>). This result was expected given that ridges and hillsides with gentle topography and Andean forest cover (suitable habitat for <span style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span>) are uncommon in the area.</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <br>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font style="font-weight: bold;" size="3"><span      style="font-family: verdana;">Discussion</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Species distribution     models have     been widely used at large regional scales (1:100 000 to 1:500 000) to     predict the potential distribution of tree species based on presence     only data (<span style="font-style: italic;">i.e</span>., museum     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[specimens), climatic variables, altitude, and     soil type (Montiel 2008, Phillips &amp; Dud&iacute;k 2008, Soria-Auzaa     <span style="font-style: italic;">et al</span>. 2010). Our study     predicted the spatial distribution of <span style="font-style: italic;">A.&nbsp;     perutilis</span> at a fine local scale (1:10 000), based on     presence/absence     data as well as topographic variables measured <span      style="font-style: italic;">in situ</span>. This     hierarchical approach allowed us to integrate information from     different spatial scales to show how topographic heterogeneity at a     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[very fine scale affects the distribution of <span      style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> in a local     scale inside the studied forest fragments. Our analysis reveals that     the available habitat for <span style="font-style: italic;">A.     perutilis</span> is significantly smaller than     the extension of the fragment and much smaller than the extension of     the currently protected areas. Our results have important implications     for the conservation of <span style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span>,     and likely for other threatened     Andean tree species, if they are similarly restricted in distribution     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[by topographic heterogeneity. </span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">A spatial     distribution limited by     topographic&nbsp; heterogeneity&nbsp; at&nbsp; a&nbsp; local&nbsp;     scale,&nbsp; such as&nbsp; that&nbsp; of&nbsp; <span      style="font-style: italic;">A.&nbsp;     perutilis</span>,&nbsp; suggests&nbsp; preference or susceptibility to     particular soil conditions, such as moisture (Ohsawa &amp; Ozaki 1992,     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[Wenny 2000, Kubota <span style="font-style: italic;">et al</span>.     2004). The studied populations of <span style="font-style: italic;">A.     perutilis</span> showed a strong preference for ridges and slope     habitats with     slope angles lower than 36&deg;. Despite the high precipitation of the     studied areas (mean annual rainfall:&nbsp; 2 870mm),&nbsp;     seedlings&nbsp; of&nbsp; <span style="font-style: italic;">A.&nbsp;     perutilis</span> occurred in soils that     seemed relatively drier than&nbsp; those&nbsp; in&nbsp; the&nbsp;     valleys,&nbsp; where&nbsp; we&nbsp; found no seedlings of this species.     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[Thus, seedlings might be susceptible to excessive moisture as     previously suggested for other tropical tree species (Matelson <span      style="font-style: italic;">et al</span>.     1995, Clark <span style="font-style: italic;">et al</span>. 1998,     Oliveira <span style="font-style: italic;">et al</span>. 1998, Harms <span      style="font-style: italic;">et al</span>. 2001,     Kubota <span style="font-style: italic;">et&nbsp; al</span>.&nbsp;     2004). Another&nbsp; factor&nbsp; that&nbsp;     could&nbsp; also influence the spatial distribution of <span      style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> in     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[the studied areas is soil stability (Gale 2000). Soils at high     gradients are structurally unstable and plants are more susceptible to     fall to the ground due to height, weight, and strong winds. <span      style="font-style: italic;">Aniba     perutilis</span> trees do not have morphological adaptations for growth     in     steep areas, such as buttress roots or tabular roots that provide extra     anchorage and support. Given the preference of <span      style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span> for areas     with moderate gradient and the high topographic gradient that     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[characterized the great majority of the land cover on each forest     fragment, it is clear that most of the original habitat suitable for     this species, the areas outside the forest fragments, has been     transformed.</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">A population     structure with a small     number of individuals in several intermediate reproductive size     classes, such as that of <span style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span>,     suggests a gap in the successful     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[reproduction of this species (Harper &amp; White 1974, Roff 1992,     Stearns 1992, Ak&ccedil;akaya <span style="font-style: italic;">et al</span>.     1999). This may have been caused     by the absence or low presence of reproductive trees as a consequence     of selective extraction, which occurred 50 or 60 years ago, according     to local informants. <span style="font-style: italic;">Aniba perutilis</span>     was one of the most common trees     locally extracted for lumber, especially individuals with DBH&gt;40cm.     Because selective extraction of <span style="font-style: italic;">A.     perutilis</span> abruptly decreased about     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[40 years ago, the few large individuals currently&nbsp; present are     those that, scaped harvesting;&nbsp; they&nbsp; could not be used     because they did not&nbsp; have a suitable diameter at the time, or for     some other reasons. It also suggests that those&nbsp; are the     progenitors of most of the current&nbsp; seedlings. Although the     breeding system of <span style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span>     is unknown, it is probable that current     populations of <span style="font-style: italic;">A. perutilis</span>     have some levels of endogamy because the     progenitors are few and sparse.</span></font><br     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[ style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font style="font-weight: bold;" size="3"><span      style="font-family: verdana;">Acknowledgments</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We thank S. Giraldo,     P. Garnica, J.     Alzate and L.J. Rojas Valencia for their outstanding logistical support     during the field work, and W. Vargas for assistance in plant     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[identification; Amy Comfort de Gonzalez, James Ackerman, Jonathan Koch,     and anonymous reviewers for their considerable input, insightful     comments and suggestions that improved this work. We would like to     thank UMATA of Filandia, Quindio. Support from the Instituto Alexander     von Humboldt, Colombia, to the senior author to conduct field study is     greatly appreciated. Partial support to V.H.G. was provided by the     Department of Biological Sciences, Southwestern Oklahoma State     University.</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"></font>     <hr style="width: 100%; height: 2px;"><br style="font-family: verdana;">     ]]></body>
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Universidad de Caldas, Manizales, Caldas, Colombia.    &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;[&#160;<a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="javascript: window.open('/scielo.php?script=sci_nlinks&ref=1827067&pid=S0034-7744201300010002500028&lng=','','width=640,height=500,resizable=yes,scrollbars=1,menubar=yes,');">Links</a>&#160;]<!-- end-ref --><!-- ref --></span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Wenny, D.G. 2000. Seed dispersal, seed&nbsp; predation, and seedling recruitment of a&nbsp; neotropical montane tree. Ecol. Monogr. 70: 331-351.    &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;[&#160;<a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="javascript: window.open('/scielo.php?script=sci_nlinks&ref=1827068&pid=S0034-7744201300010002500029&lng=','','width=640,height=500,resizable=yes,scrollbars=1,menubar=yes,');">Links</a>&#160;]<!-- end-ref --><br>     <br> <a name="Correspondencia1"></a><a href="#Correspondencia2">*</a>Correspondencia:    <br> </span></font><font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jos&eacute; C. Fagua: </span></font><font size="2"><span  style="font-family: verdana;">Grupo de investigaci&oacute;n en Percepci&oacute;n Remota, Centro de Investigaci&oacute;n y Desarrollo en&nbsp; Informaci&oacute;n Geogr&aacute;fica- CIAF, Instituto Geogr&aacute;fico Agust&iacute;n Codazzi-IGAC, Carrera 30 No. 48-51, Bogot&aacute; D.C., Colombia. camilo_fagua@yahoo.com</span></font>    <br> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Edersson Cabrera:&nbsp; </span></font><font size="2"><span  style="font-family: verdana;">Instituto de Hidrolog&iacute;a, Meteorolog&iacute;a y Estudios Ambientales-IDEAM-, Bogot&aacute;, Colombia. edersson.cabrera@gmail.com</span></font>    ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<br> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Victor H. Gonzalez: </span></font><font  size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Department of Biological Sciences, Southwestern Oklahoma State University, 100&nbsp; Campus Drive, Weatherford, Oklahoma, 73096, USA, &amp; Division of Entomology, Natural History Museum, 1501 Crestline Drive &#8211; Suite 140, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045, USA. victorgonzab@gmail.com</span></font><a  href="mailto:victorgonzab@gmail.com"><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></font></a> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a name="1"></a><a  href="#4">1</a>. Grupo de investigaci&oacute;n en Percepci&oacute;n Remota, Centro de Investigaci&oacute;n y Desarrollo en&nbsp; Informaci&oacute;n Geogr&aacute;fica- CIAF, Instituto Geogr&aacute;fico Agust&iacute;n Codazzi-IGAC, Carrera 30 No. 48-51, Bogot&aacute; D.C., Colombia; camilo_fagua@yahoo.com</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a name="2"></a><a  href="#5">2</a>. Instituto de Hidrolog&iacute;a, Meteorolog&iacute;a y Estudios Ambientales-IDEAM-, Bogot&aacute;, Colombia; edersson.cabrera@gmail.com</span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a name="3"></a><a  href="#6">3</a>. Department of Biological Sciences, Southwestern Oklahoma State University, 100&nbsp; Campus Drive, Weatherford, Oklahoma, 73096, USA, &amp; Division of Entomology, Natural History Museum, 1501 Crestline Drive &#8211; Suite 140, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045, USA; victorgonzab@gmail.com</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <hr style="width: 100%; height: 2px;">     <div style="text-align: center;"><font style="font-weight: bold;"  size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Received 13-XII-2011.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Corrected 27-V-2012.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Accepted 27-VI-2012. </span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> </div> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></font> </div> <font size="2"></font>      ]]></body><back>
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