<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0034-7744</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Biología Tropical]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. biol. trop]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0034-7744</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Costa Rica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0034-77442012000400020</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Monitoring the endangered population of the antelope Kobus leche smithemani (Artiodactyla: Bovidae), in the Bangweulu ecosystem, Zambia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Siamudaala]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Victor M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Munyeme]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Musso]]></given-names>
</name>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Matandiko]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Wigganson]]></given-names>
</name>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Muma]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[John B]]></given-names>
</name>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Munang&#8217;andu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Hetron M]]></given-names>
</name>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="A01">
<institution><![CDATA[,Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area Secretariat  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Gaborone]]></addr-line>
<country>Botswana</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A02">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Zambia School of Veterinary Medicine Department of Disease Control]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Lusaka]]></addr-line>
<country>Zambia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A03">
<institution><![CDATA[,Montana State University Department of Ecology ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Montana]]></addr-line>
<country>United States of America</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A04">
<institution><![CDATA[,Norwegian School of Veterinary Medicine Department of Basic Sciences and Aquatic Medicine Section of Aquatic Medicine and Nutrition]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Oslo]]></addr-line>
<country>Norway</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2012</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2012</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>60</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<fpage>1631</fpage>
<lpage>1639</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0034-77442012000400020&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0034-77442012000400020&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0034-77442012000400020&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Black lechwe (Kobus leche smithemani) is a semi-aquatic medium sized antelope currently enlisted on the IUCN red list of endangered species and is only endemic to the Bangweulu basin of Zambia. Its population has significantly decreased due to floods that took place during the period 1930-1940 from over 250 000-15 000 leading the Zambian government to gazette all habitats of Black lechwe into state protected areas, and to establish urgent management strategies needed to save the remaining population from extinction. Using retrospective data, our findings show that the population has increased from 15 000 animals in 1954 to 55 632 in 2009. The current population is estimated at 34.77% (55 632/160 000) of the carrying capacity of the Bangweulu basin. Although the Black lechwe is one of the 42 species offered for consumptive utilization by the Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA), only 0.12% and 0.08% of the current stock was offered for safari and resident hunting annually for the period 2005-2009, respectively. Annual quota utilization were estimated at 67% (n=37) and 81% (n=37) for safari and resident hunting, respectively. Hence, overall income obtained from utilization of Black lechwe is very low accounting for only 2.1% of the total revenue earned from wildlife utilization. Although the current population trend is showing a unit increase of 639 animals per year, it is still far below levels ideal for the lucrative utilization. In this study, we demonstrate that adverse ecological changes on wildlife species, can lead to their vulnerability and danger of extinction, and that their recovery to full carrying capacity may demand a considerable amount of time]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[El lechwe negro (Kobus leche smithemani) es un antílope semi-acuático de tamaño medio que en la actualidad se encuentra en la lista roja de la UICN de especies en peligro de extinción y sólo es endémica de la cuenca del Bangweulu de Zambia. Su población ha disminuido considerablemente, de más de 250 000 a 15 000, debido a las inundaciones que se dieron durante el período 1930-1940, lo que llevó al gobierno de Zambia a declarar todos los hábitats del lechwe negro en áreas protegidas estatales, y a establecer estrategias de administración urgentes necesarias para salvar el resto de la población de la extinción. Utilizando los datos retrospectivos, nuestros resultados muestran que la población ha aumentado de 15 000 animales en 1954 a 55 632 en 2009. La población actual se estima en 34.77% (55 632/160 000) de la capacidad de carga de la cuenca del Bangweulu. Aunque el lechwe Negro es una de las 42 especies que se ofrecen para su utilización consuntiva por la Autoridad de Vida Silvestre de Zambia (ZAWA), sólo el 0.12% y 0.08% de la población actual se ha ofrecido para el safari y la caza residente anual para el período 2005-2009, respectivamente. La utilización de la cuota anual se estima en 67% (n=67) y 81% (n=37) para safari de caza y residente, respectivamente. Por lo tanto, los ingresos totales obtenidos de la utilización del lechwe negro son muy bajos contando sólo el 2.1% de los ingresos totales obtenidos de la utilización de la fauna silvestre. Aunque la tendencia actual de la población está mostrando un incremento unitario de 639 animales por año, está todavía muy por debajo de los niveles ideales para la utilización lucrativa. En este estudio, se demuestra que los cambios ecológicos perjudiciales sobre especies de fauna silvestre, puede conducir a su vulnerabilidad y peligro de extinción, y que la recuperación de su capacidad de carga completa puede exigir una cantidad considerable de tiempo.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bangweulu]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Black lechwe]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[conservation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ecosystem]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[utilization]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Bangweulu]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Lechwe negro]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[conservación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ecosistema]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[utilización]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><body><![CDATA[ <div style="text-align: justify;">     <div style="text-align: center;"><font style="font-weight: bold;"  size="4"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Monitoring the endangered population of the antelope </span></font><font  style="font-style: italic;" size="4"><span  style="font-family: verdana;">Kobus leche smithemani</span></font><font  style="font-weight: bold;" size="4"><span style="font-family: verdana;"> (Artiodactyla: Bovidae), in the Bangweulu ecosystem, Zambia</span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> </div> <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <div style="text-align: center;"><font size="2"><span  style="font-family: verdana;">Victor M. Siamudaala<sup><a href="#1">1</a><a  name="5"></a>*</sup>, Musso Munyeme<sup><a href="#2">2</a><a name="6"></a>*</sup>, Wigganson Matandiko<sup><a href="#3">3</a><a name="7"></a>*</sup>, John B. Muma<a  href="#2"><sup>2</sup></a>&nbsp; &amp; Hetron M. Munang&#8217;andu<sup><a href="#4">4</a><a name="8"></a>*</sup></span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> </div> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">    <br> <a name="Correspondencia2"></a>*<a href="#Correspondencia1">Direcci&oacute;n para correspondencia</a> <br style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></font> <hr style="width: 100%; height: 2px;"><font style="font-weight: bold;"  size="3"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Abstract</span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> <br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Black lechwe (<span  style="font-style: italic;">Kobus leche smithemani</span>) is a semi-aquatic medium sized antelope currently enlisted on the IUCN red list of endangered species and is only endemic to the Bangweulu basin of Zambia. Its population has significantly decreased due to floods that took place during the period 1930-1940 from over 250 000-15 000 leading the Zambian government to gazette all habitats of Black lechwe into state protected areas, and to establish urgent management strategies needed to save the remaining population from extinction. Using retrospective data, our findings show that the population has increased from 15 000 animals in 1954 to 55 632 in 2009. The current population is estimated at 34.77% (55 632/160 000) of the carrying capacity of the Bangweulu basin. Although the Black lechwe is one of the 42 species offered for consumptive utilization by the Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA), only 0.12% and 0.08% of the current stock was offered for safari and resident hunting annually for the period 2005-2009, respectively. Annual quota utilization were estimated at 67% (n=37) and 81% (n=37) for safari and resident hunting, respectively. Hence, overall income obtained from utilization of Black lechwe is very low accounting for only 2.1% of the total revenue earned from wildlife utilization. Although the current population trend is showing a unit increase of 639 animals per year, it is still far below levels ideal for the lucrative utilization. In this study, we demonstrate that adverse ecological changes on wildlife species, can lead to their vulnerability and danger of extinction, and that their recovery to full carrying capacity may demand a considerable amount of time. </span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> <br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span  style="font-weight: bold;">Key words: </span>Bangweulu, Black lechwe, conservation, ecosystem, utilization.</span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> <br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font style="font-weight: bold;" size="3"><span  style="font-family: verdana;">Resumen</span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> <br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">El&nbsp; lechwe&nbsp; negro&nbsp; (<span style="font-style: italic;">Kobus&nbsp; leche&nbsp; smithemani</span>)&nbsp; es&nbsp; un ant&iacute;lope semi-acu&aacute;tico de tama&ntilde;o medio que en la actualidad se encuentra en la lista roja de la UICN de especies en peligro de extinci&oacute;n y s&oacute;lo es&nbsp; end&eacute;mica de la cuenca del Bangweulu de&nbsp; Zambia. Su poblaci&oacute;n ha disminuido considerablemente, de m&aacute;s de 250 000 a 15&nbsp; 000, debido a las inundaciones que se dieron durante el per&iacute;odo 1930-1940, lo que llev&oacute; al gobierno de Zambia a declarar todos los h&aacute;bitats del lechwe negro en &aacute;reas protegidas estatales, y a establecer estrategias de administraci&oacute;n urgentes necesarias para salvar el resto de la poblaci&oacute;n de la extinci&oacute;n. Utilizando los datos retrospectivos, nuestros resultados muestran que la poblaci&oacute;n ha aumentado de 15 000 animales en 1954 a 55 632 en 2009. La poblaci&oacute;n actual se estima en 34.77% (55 632/160 000) de la capacidad de carga de la cuenca del Bangweulu. Aunque&nbsp; el&nbsp; lechwe&nbsp; Negro&nbsp; es una de las 42 especies que se ofrecen para su utilizaci&oacute;n consuntiva por la Autoridad de Vida Silvestre de Zambia (ZAWA), s&oacute;lo el 0.12% y 0.08% de la poblaci&oacute;n actual se ha ofrecido para el safari y la caza residente anual para el per&iacute;odo 2005-2009, respectivamente. La utilizaci&oacute;n&nbsp; de la cuota anual se estima en 67% (n=67) y 81% (n=37) para safari de caza y residente, respectivamente. Por lo tanto, los ingresos totales obtenidos de la utilizaci&oacute;n del lechwe negro son muy bajos contando s&oacute;lo el 2.1% de los ingresos totales obtenidos de la utilizaci&oacute;n de la fauna silvestre. Aunque la tendencia actual de la poblaci&oacute;n est&aacute; mostrando un incremento unitario de 639 animales por a&ntilde;o, est&aacute; todav&iacute;a muy por debajo de los niveles ideales para la utilizaci&oacute;n lucrativa. En este estudio, se demuestra que los cambios ecol&oacute;gicos perjudiciales sobre especies de fauna silvestre, puede conducir a su vulnerabilidad y peligro de extinci&oacute;n, y que la recuperaci&oacute;n de su capacidad de carga completa puede exigir una cantidad considerable de tiempo.</span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> <br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span  style="font-weight: bold;">Palabras clave:</span> Bangweulu, Lechwe negro, conservaci&oacute;n, ecosistema, utilizaci&oacute;n.</span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;">     <br>     <hr style="width: 100%; height: 2px;"><font size="2"><span      style="font-family: verdana;">The Black lechwe (<span      style="font-style: italic;">Kobus leche     smithemani</span>) is a semi-aquatic medium sized antelope endemic to     Zambia&#8217;s     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[Bangweulu swamps. It is one of the three <span      style="font-style: italic;">Kobus leche</span> sub-species found     in Zambia together with the Kafue lechwe (<span      style="font-style: italic;">Kobus leche kafuensis</span>)     endemic to the Kafue flats and red lechwe (<span      style="font-style: italic;">Kobus leche leche</span>) in Liuwa     National Park (NP) in Western Zambia.</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Kafue and Black     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[lechwe are     endangered and are currently enlisted on the International Union for     Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red list of threatened species     (IUCN&nbsp; 2010).     The Black lechwe population used to     cover a large area, extending from the Bangweulu swamps of Zambia into     the Katanga Province in Southern Democratic&nbsp;     Republic of Congo (Pitman 1934,     Vesey-Fitzgerald&nbsp; 1955). The 1930-40s flooding caused the     Black lechwe population to decline tremendously leavingonly a small     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[proportion of animals remaining in the Bangweulu swamps of Zambia     (Pitman 1934, Vesey-Fitzgerald 1955). Current efforts by the Zambia     Wildlife Authority (ZAWA) are directed to save the remaining population     and avoid extinction (ZAWA 2010, unpublished). After major ecological     changes, it is important for ecologists to effectively monitor the rate     of recovery of animal species that are adversely affected by changes in     ecological habitats. This is     particularly important in animal species that&nbsp; are&nbsp;     endemic to habitats vulnerable to ecological changes,     because such animals are likely to go into extinction if the changes in     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[the ecosystem are severe and prolonged. Monitoring the recovery     process, serves as a guideline on the proportion of animals to be     allocated for consumptive utilization, and helps in     developing measures aimed at&nbsp; increasing the     population of endangered species at risk of extinction. In addition,     population studies are helpful in understanding how the decline or     increase of one species affects the survival of others in an ecosystem.</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Historical     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[background shows that     the livelihoods of local inhabitants around the Bangweulu swamps were     heavily dependent on hunting the Black lechwe, although the population     was so high that the impact of hunting was very low (Pitman 1934,     Vesey-Fitzgerald 1955). Besides, a switch from poaching to fishing     occurred during the 1930s &#8211; 1940s, following major flooding events     which resulted in a significant decline in the Black lechwe population     (Pitman 1934, Vesey-Fitzgerald 1955). Government efforts to preserve     the remaining population were followed by gazetting the Bangweulu     swamps into a game management area (GMA) and the surrounding areas into     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[National Parks (NP) in 1972. This was done in order to save the     remaining population from further decline due to poaching. Given the     existing scenario in the Bangweulu GMA, where there is absence of most     sought-after species for wildlife utilization such as the Black     rhinoceros (<span style="font-style: italic;">Diceros bicornis</span>),     a balance has to be struck between     consumptive utilization of a threatened Black lechwe antelope and     conserving it to levels which allow a healthy recovery of the     population from the danger of extinction. Thus we undertook this study     to assess the recovery rate of the Black lechwe after the 1930-40     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[flooding, in relation to the carrying capacity as determined by ZAWA     whilst allowing light off take rates for consumptive utilization. We     wanted to find out whether the Black lechwe population is increasing or     reducing in the Bangweulu basin. We also wanted to determine the     increase or reduction unit of animals per annum. Furthermore, we wanted     to determine the influence of the current Black lechwe population trend     on utilization of this species on the Bangweulu basin. Using this study     we document a classical example on how a change in an ecosystem can     endanger one species almost to a point of extinction, leading to a very     long recovery time that could take several decades to regain the animal     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[population to its original status.</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font style="font-weight: bold;" size="3"><span      style="font-family: verdana;">Materials and Methods</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span      style="font-weight: bold;">Study area:</span> The Bangweulu basin     covers an estimated area of 30 000km<sup>2</sup> which includes three     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[GMAs namely the Bangweulu GMA 3600km<sup>2</sup>, Chikuni     GMA 2500km<sup>2</sup> and Kalaso-Mukoso GMA 1900km<sup>2</sup>&nbsp;     making it one of the     largest wetlands in Southern Africa. Game Management Areas (GMAs) are     livestockwildlife interface areas around NPs in which rearing of     domestic animals is permitted (Balakrishnan &amp; Ndhlovu 1992). The     Bangweulu basin is an important ecosystem designated as Ramsar site 531     (RIS 2008). Black lechwe contribute significantly to the ecological     balance of the Bangweulu basin by providing faecal nutrients to the     various fish species that spawn in the basin. Annual fish production is     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[estimated at&nbsp; about 7 000metric tons. The     Bangweulu swamps are critical to regulating floods and are therefore     important in the context of climate change. Annual rainfall averages 1     380mm and occurs between November and March while mean temperatures     vary between 6.5&ordm;C in July and 40&ordm;C in     October. The area is underlain by a shallow     depression of about 160km in diameter fed by several rivers. The     seasonally flooded plain covers about 68 000km<sup>2</sup> while the     permanent     flooded area covers about 5 000km<sup>2</sup> which influences     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[the distribution of animals and plants (Chabwela     1987).</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The area comprises     several mammals,     reptiles, fish and avifauna species. Mammals in the GMA and their     population estimates are: African Buffalo (<span      style="font-style: italic;">Syncerus caffer</span>) &#8211; 161;     African Elephant (<span style="font-style: italic;">Loxodonta Africana</span>)     &#8211; 8; Black Lechwe (<span style="font-style: italic;">K. lechwe     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[smithemani</span>) &#8211; 87 000; Oribi (<span style="font-style: italic;">Ourebia     ourebi</span>) &#8211; 30; Sitatunga     (<span style="font-style: italic;">Tragelaphus spekei</span>) &#8211; 75;     Tsessebe Tsessebe (<span style="font-style: italic;">Damaliscus lunatus</span>)     &#8211;     500; Zebra (<span style="font-style: italic;">Equus burchelli</span>) &#8211;     45. Bird species in the area include the     globally threatened&nbsp; Shoebill&nbsp; stork&nbsp; (<span      style="font-style: italic;">Balaeniceps&nbsp;     rex</span>), and a large population of Wattled crane (<span     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[ style="font-style: italic;">Grus     carunculatus</span>).&nbsp; The&nbsp; area&nbsp; has&nbsp; 86&nbsp;     species&nbsp; of fish of which 33 are of commercial value. In addition     the GMA is the only area where the threatened slender-nose crocodile     (<span style="font-style: italic;">Crocodylus cataphracus</span>) is     found in Zambia.</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span      style="font-weight: bold;">Data collection and analysis:</span>     Retrospective&nbsp; data&nbsp; on&nbsp; the&nbsp; Black&nbsp;     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[lechwe&nbsp; population in the Bangweulu GMA was collected from records     obtained from ZAWA, formerly called National Parks and Wildlife     Services, who are the custodian of wildlife in Zambia. Data was     collected for the period 1930-2009 and was analysed in 2011. Aerial     survey data on counts of the Black lechwe population for the period     1950 - 2009 was collected. This was based on reports submitted to ZAWA     by different experts contracted to do the aerial population counts in     the Bangweulu basin. Plotting of human inhabited areas and distribution     of the Black lechwe was based on georeference (GIS) data obtained from     the aerial surveys using ArcView GIS&#8482; version 10. Utilization data on     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[quota allocation for safari and resident hunting, revenue earnings from     animal sales and other relevant details were also collected for data     analysis for the period 2005-2009. Estimates of the carrying capacity     of the Bangweulu basin for Black lechwe were based on ecological data     provided by ZAWA. Population data was entered in Microsoft&#8482; Excel and     transferred to STATA&#8482; version 10 for analysis. To determine the unit     increase of animals per annum, we used two univariate time series     analytical models namely the&nbsp; Prais-Winsten&nbsp; and&nbsp;     Newey-West&nbsp; regression models (Prais &amp; Winsten 1954, Newey     &amp; West 1987).</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font style="font-weight: bold;" size="3"><span      style="font-family: verdana;">Results</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span      style="font-weight: bold;">Population&nbsp; trend&nbsp;     of&nbsp; Black&nbsp; lechwe&nbsp; on the&nbsp; Bangweulu&nbsp;     ecosystem:</span>&nbsp; <a href="/img/revistas/rbt/v60n4/a20i1.jpg">Figure&nbsp;     1</a>&nbsp; shows the distribution of     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[Black     lechwe overlapping with human settlement in the Bangweulu basin. <a      href="/img/revistas/rbt/v60n4/a20t1.gif">Table     1</a> shows the population trend of Black lechwe on the Bangweulu     swamps     from the 1930s-2009. The population was at its lowest between the     period of 1954 and 1971, while the increase was observed in 1973 and     stabilized until 1996.</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The current     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[population was     estimated in 55 632 animals, based on the last aerial surveys carried     out in 2009, which is about 22.25% of the earlier population estimated     before the flooding in the 1930-1940s. <a      href="/img/revistas/rbt/v60n4/a20i2.jpg">Figure 2a</a> shows the     population trend since 1930s while A<sub>1</sub>     shows the estimated carrying capacity of the Bangweulu basin, and A<sub>2</sub>     the mean estimate for the study period. The current population was     estimated to be 34.77% of the estimated carrying capacity (n=160 000)     of the Bangweulu GMA. Taking the population trend from 1954 after the     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[1930s-1940s flooding to 2009, our estimates using the     Newey-West regression model, indicated that there is a unit increase of     639 (p&lt;0.000, 95%CI 403.86-873.56) animals per year, as shown in     <a href="/img/revistas/rbt/v60n4/a20i2.jpg">figure 2b</a>. This gives     an intake rate of 1.15% (639/55 632) of the     current population estimate. Similarly, the Prais-Winsten regression     model showed an estimate of 639 animals (p&lt;0.000, 95%CI 417.49     -859.42). This unit increase of 639 animals per year gives a forecast     of another 38 years for the Black lechwe population to reach half (80     000) of the estimated carrying capacity of the Bangweulu basin, and     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[another 163 years to reach the full carrying capacity (160 000) from     the current population estimates (n=55 632). Although we did not     determine the population increase of people living in the Bangweulu     basin, before and shortly after the 1930-1940 floods, the number     of people living in the&nbsp; surrounding     district, including people living in the Bangweulu GMA, has steadily     increased from 9 692 in 1980 to 12 728 in 1990, followed by an increase     of 17 624 in 2000 to 20 321 in 2010 (CSO 2010). Although this expansion     of the human population poses a significant danger to the survival of     Black lechwe, considering that most illegal hunters come from people     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[living within and surrounding areas of the Bangweulu GMA, the exact     impact of human population growth on Black lechwe has not yet been     evaluated and was not assessed in this study.</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span      style="font-weight: bold;">Utilization of black lechwe:</span> During     the period 2005-2009, ZAWA offered a total of 527 <span      style="font-style: italic;">Kobus leche     smithemani </span>for hunting disaggregated as 295 and 232 animals for     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[safari     and resident hunting, respectively. The annual quota for each of the     market segments was 59 animals for safari and 46 animals under resident     hunting. On average, safari hunting comprises 53% of the <span      style="font-style: italic;">K. lechwe     smithemani</span> allocated on quota compared to resident hunting which     comprises 47%. The quota utilization percentage by the two market     segments is on average 62% (n=37 animals) by safari hunting and 81%     (n=37 animals) by resident hunters (<a      href="/img/revistas/rbt/v60n4/a20t2.gif">Table 2</a>). Records of     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[animal quotas     at the ZAWA licensing office showed that the annual quotas for <span      style="font-style: italic;">K. leche     kafuensis</span> for the same study period (2005-2009) averaged around     106 and     571 animals for safari and resident hunting with quota utilization     percentages of 42.0% (n=44 animals) under safari hunting and 98.7%     (n=564 animals) under resident hunting. Indicative earnings by ZAWA     from the consumptive use of the species are given in <a      href="/img/revistas/rbt/v60n4/a20t2.gif">table 2</a>. Safari     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[hunting of the species remains the most lucrative as it is highly     priced at about 15 times more expensive compared to resident hunting:     on average, ZAWA earned US$ 52 260 annually from safari hunting and a     paltry US$ 3 500 from resident hunting for the period 2005-2009.</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font style="font-weight: bold;" size="3"><span      style="font-family: verdana;">Discussion</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Monitoring     animal&nbsp;&nbsp;     &nbsp;population after adverse&nbsp; ecological&nbsp; changes&nbsp;     is&nbsp; important&nbsp; for the purpose of determining the exact     reduction on the animal population and the rate of recovery&nbsp;     after&nbsp; the&nbsp; change&nbsp; in&nbsp; the&nbsp; ecosystem. This     is particularly important in animal species that are naturally endemic     to particular ecosystems. When these ecosystems are subjected to     adverse ecological changes, vulnerable species inhabiting these places     are bound to undergo severe population reductions, which might take a     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[long time to return to full carrying capacity of the affected habitat.     Reports from ZAWA indicate that the population of Black lechwe at the     turn of the last century numbered approximately 250 000. However, after     the 1930-1940 flooding which rose several meters high, the Bangweulu     swamps never returned to its original levels thereby displacing a lot     of animals (Pitman 1934, Vesey-Fitzgerald 1955). This created a major     change in the Bangweulu ecosystem. As a result, the Black lechwe     population decreased tremendously to 15 000 animals by 1954     (Vesey-Fitzgerald 1955). By 1969, there were only 16     000 animals left on the Bangweulu basin. In     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[1972 this prompted government to turn the ecological habitat of Black     lechwe&nbsp; into&nbsp; GMAs&nbsp; and&nbsp; NPs&nbsp; which&nbsp;     became state protected areas.</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">As shown in <a      href="/img/revistas/rbt/v60n4/a20t2.gif">table 2</a>,     animal counts     in the Bangweulu basin were not obtained at regular intervals because     of financial constraints experienced by the Zambian government to carry     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[out aerial counts at regular intervals over the last 60 years. However,     use of time series statistical&nbsp; models, such as     the Newey-West and Prais-Winsten regression     models, makes it possible to estimate the population increase per     annum based on existing data collected at different time points. Time     series models have been widely used to calculate the unit increase over     time as well as to forecast the performance of different parameters for     different time periods (Box &amp; Jenkins 1994). The Newey-West model     has been shown to be consistent even when there are serial correlations     and conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown forms while the Prais     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[Winsten model has the advantage of being more reliable for small sample     sizes especially in cases where losing one observation might seriously     affect the outcome of results (Box &amp; Jenkins 1994, McQuarrie &amp;     Tsai&nbsp; CL 1998). However, both models&nbsp; have     been shown to be suitable for all sample sizes and, hence, they are     widely used for multiple time series studies (McQuarrie &amp; Tsai CL     1998, Chang <span style="font-style: italic;">et al.</span> 2010, Huy     <span style="font-style: italic;">et al.</span> 2010). It is     interesting to note that both models gave the same     unit increase of 639 animals per annum.</span></font><br     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[ style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Based on ecological     surveys carried     out by&nbsp; ZAWA in&nbsp; the&nbsp; last&nbsp; decade&nbsp; (ZAWA     2010, unpublished), the Bangweulu ecosystem can sustain a population of     about 160 000 animals if adequate protection and management were     provided. Grimsdell &amp; Bell in 1975 (unpublished&nbsp; reports&nbsp;     1975)&nbsp; estimated&nbsp; that&nbsp; it&nbsp; would take     approximately 29 years for the population to gain this carrying     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[capacity at 10% annual growth rate of the 16 000 animals that existed     on the basin in 1972. Similarly, Kamweneshe in 1996 (Kamweneshe 2000)     estimated a growth rate of 6 000 animals per annum for a population of     32 000 animals that existed on the basin in&nbsp; 1996.&nbsp;     However,&nbsp; 30&nbsp; years&nbsp; after&nbsp; Grimsdell &amp; Bell&#8217;s,     and 15 years after Kamweneshe&#8217;s estimates the population has not     reached half of the estimated carrying capacity. Hence, the current     population growth rate of 639 animals per annum is too low to increase     the animal population to the expected     carrying capacity. Our forecasts indicate that at the current     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[growth rate, it will take another 38 years for the population to reach     half of the estimated carrying capacity and another 163 years to reach     a full carrying capacity. This entails that recovery from the     1930-1940s flooding will not be attained soon     unless there is a change in conservation strategies.</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Based on the     aforementioned     reasons, cropping of Black lechwe is not foreseeable as a population     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[control strategy in the near future. This is in line with     recommendations made by other scientists (Bell &amp; Grimsdell 1973)     who pointed out that no lechwe should be cropped until the     population&nbsp; reaches a minimum of 100 000     with an off-take rate of 10% per     annum. At 100 000, an off-take of 10% would yield a minimum of 400     metric tonnes of meat and more animals would be allocated for safari     hunting. Hence, for ZAWA to attain substantial revenue earnings from     utilization of the Black lechwe it is imperative that the population is     increased to full carrying capacity. The current population is     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[far too low to implement consumptive utilization activities that are     lucrative. It is likely that this trend might apply to utilization of     other endangered     species in situations where population growth is low and as such     allocation of animals for utilization is bound to be low.</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Thus far, there has     been no major     disease outbreak linked to high mortality in Black lechwe and there has     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[been no major ecological change linked to population reduction after     the 1930-1940 floods. Hence, the only possible cause of     high off-take rates is illegal hunting of     animals. This has been exacerbated by the increase in human     encroachment into the Bangweulu swamps engaged in fishing activities.     As shown in <a href="/img/revistas/rbt/v60n4/a20i1.jpg">figure 1</a>,     the distribution of the human population in the     GMA covers the lechwe populated areas. The increase in human population     in the area poses a danger such that illegal hunting of wildlife might     continue for a long time. Previous studies (Thirgood <span     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[ style="font-style: italic;">et al.</span> 1992) have     shown that approximately 3 000 Black lechwe are hunted illegally every     year although it is likely that this number might be an     underestimation. Hence there is an urgent need to improve the patrols     of law enforcement officers in the GMA/NP, in order to reduce illegal     hunting of Black lechwe. Current efforts based on the ZAWA annual     reports in the last decade (ZAWA 2010, unpublished) have been directed     at involving local communities in the ownership of wildlife as a way of     sensitizing the public and putting joint efforts with the general     public and government law enforcement agents in curbing down illegal     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[hunting of wildlife. Given the current population estimate at 55 632,     which is at one third of the carrying capacity of what the Bangweulu     ecosystem can sustain, hunting     quotas should be kept at minimal levels of 0.12% (59/55 652) for safari     hunting and 0.08% (46/55 632) for resident hunting per annum. Although     the human population within the Bangweulu GMA and the surrounding areas     is showing an increase, most people are engaged on fishing on Lake     Bangweulu and not in land tillage or ownership of livestock which often     comes in direct conflict with wildlife. Hence, anthropogenic pressure     is perceived not to have reached alarming levels likely to cause     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[significant adverse effects on expansion of the Black lechwe population     apart from illegal hunting which can be controlled by law enforcement     officers. However, there is need for detailed quantitative studies to     verify these assertions. Another important factor that could     adversely affect the carrying capacity of Black     lechwe on the Bangweulu basin is global climate change. Thus far, there     has been no study carried out to determine the effect of climate change     on the Bangweulu basin. It is imperative that an assessment of the     impact of climate change is carried out, and effective monitoring of     climate factors, that     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[would adversely affect the expansion of wildlife, are closely monitored     in order to develop timely mitigation measures that would prevent the     loss of threatened species from extinction.</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In this study we     provide a     classical example of how a change in an ecosystem can endanger the     survival of vulnerable species as shown in the flooding that took place     on the Bangweulu basin in the 1930-1940s which led to the significant     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[reduction of the Black lechwe in subsequent years. Although the     flooding caused a drastic reduction in the population, suffice to     mention that the low rate of recovery after the     flooding has been exacerbated by poaching (Thirgood     <span style="font-style: italic;">et al.</span> 1992). As shown in this     study, the recovery rate of 639 animals     per year over a period of 60 years has been very slow by only     increasing the number of animals to a third of the carrying capacity of     the Bangweulu ecosystem. Put together, the estimated loss of 3 000     animal due to poaching (Thirgood <span style="font-style: italic;">et     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[al.</span> 1992) and the estimated unit     increase of 639 animals per annum, the Black lechwe     population would increase&nbsp; by 3 639 animals per year.     Hence, our findings show that one major catastrophic change in an     ecosystem can take a long time to regain the loss incurred for     vulnerable species endemic to that ecosystem especially when the     situation is exacerbated by negative anthropogenic pressure. It is     imperative that disaster management should be an integral part of     conservation plans aimed at preventing the loss of species vulnerable     to major ecological changes. Thus, from this assessment, ZAWA needs to     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[device methods that will increase intake rates of Black lechwe on the     Bangweulu basin as a way of expediting the recovery process to regain     the lost population of Black lechwe to full carrying capacity the     Bangweulu ecosystem is able to sustain. There is urgent need to reduce     illegal hunting while closely monitoring the consumptive utilization     levels by allocating only a few animals for safari and trophy hunting     in order to enhance the population growth. Subsequent aerial surveys     will be vital in determining sustainable yield basis of these proposed     measures and consumptive utilization quotas may be calculated from the     deduced data.</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;">     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font style="font-weight: bold;" size="3"><span      style="font-family: verdana;">Acknowledgments</span></font><br      style="font-family: verdana;">     <br style="font-family: verdana;">     <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We thank the Zambia     Wildlife     Authority (ZAWA) for allowing us to carry out the study and providing     the data.    <br> <br style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></font> <hr style="width: 100%; height: 2px;">    ]]></body>
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Zool.&nbsp; Lond. 228: 155-172.    &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;[&#160;<a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="javascript: window.open('/scielo.php?script=sci_nlinks&ref=1811032&pid=S0034-7744201200040002000015&lng=','','width=640,height=500,resizable=yes,scrollbars=1,menubar=yes,');">Links</a>&#160;]<!-- end-ref --><!-- ref --></span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Vesey-Fitzgerald, D.F. 1955. The Blacklechwe and modern methods of wildlife conservation. Northern Rhodesia J. 2: 25-32.    &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;[&#160;<a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="javascript: window.open('/scielo.php?script=sci_nlinks&ref=1811033&pid=S0034-7744201200040002000016&lng=','','width=640,height=500,resizable=yes,scrollbars=1,menubar=yes,');">Links</a>&#160;]<!-- end-ref --></span></font>     <br>     <br> <font size="-1"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a  name="Correspondencia1"></a><a href="#Correspondencia2">*</a>Correspondencia:</span></font><font  size="2">&nbsp; <span style="font-family: verdana;">Victor M. Siamudaala:</span></font><font  size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"> Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area Secretariat, Box 1171, Gaborone, Botswana; vsiamudaala@yahoo.co.uk</span></font>    <br> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Musso Munyeme: </span></font><font size="2"><span  style="font-family: verdana;">Department of Disease Control, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zambia&nbsp; P.O. Box 32379, Lusaka, Zambia; munyeme@yahoo.co.uk</span></font>    ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<br> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Wigganson Matandiko: </span></font><font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Montana State University, Department of Ecology, Bozeman MT 59717, Montana, United States of America; wmatandiko.1965@gmail.com</span></font>    <br> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">John B. Muma:&nbsp; </span></font><font  size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Department of Disease Control, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zambia&nbsp; P.O. Box 32379, Lusaka, Zambia; jmuma@unza.zm</span></font>    <br> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Hetron M. Munang&#8217;andu:</span></font><font size="2"><span  style="font-family: verdana;"> Norwegian School of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Basic Sciences and Aquatic Medicine, Section of Aquatic Medicine and Nutrition, Box 8146 Dep-0033, Oslo Norway; hetron.munangandu@gmail.com, HetronMweemba.Munang&#8217;andu@nvh.no    <br>     <br> </span></font><font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a  name="1"></a><a href="#5">1</a>. Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area Secretariat, Box 1171, Gaborone, Botswana; vsiamudaala@yahoo.co.uk</span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a name="2"></a><a  href="#6">2</a>. Department of Disease Control, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zambia&nbsp; P.O. Box 32379, Lusaka, Zambia; munyeme@yahoo.co.uk, jmuma@unza.zm</span></font><br style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a name="3"></a><a  href="#7">3</a>. Montana State University, Department of Ecology, Bozeman MT 59717, Montana, United States of America; wmatandiko.1965@gmail.com</span></font><br  style="font-family: verdana;"> <font size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a name="4"></a><a  href="#8">4</a>. Norwegian School of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Basic Sciences and Aquatic Medicine, Section of Aquatic Medicine and Nutrition, Box 8146 Dep-0033, Oslo Norway; hetron.munangandu@gmail.com, HetronMweemba.Munang&#8217;andu@nvh.no</span></font>    <br> <font size="-1"><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></font> <hr style="width: 100%; height: 2px;">     <div style="text-align: center;"><font style="font-weight: bold;"  size="2"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Received 11-VIII-2011.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Corrected 03-IV-2012.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Accepted 03-V-2012.</span></font></div> </div>      ]]></body><back>
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