Abstract

VALENCIA VARGAS, Alejandra  and  LOPEZ PALACIO, Gabriel Jaime. Student Dropout at a Private University: A Phenomenon Not Foreign to Graduate Students. A Quantitative Assessment Based on Survival Analysis. Colombia, 2012-2016. Educación [online]. 2020, vol.44, n.2, pp.177-191. ISSN 2215-2644.  http://dx.doi.org/10.15517/revedu.v44i2.39577.

Objective: Analyze the dropout scenario for graduate students at a private university in Colombia from 2012 to 2016 to attain sufficient data for enhancing strategies focused on keeping students in school. Methodology: A quantitative, observational study using survival analysis. Frequencies and proportions were calculated for the qualitative variables in the descriptive analysis. Quantitative variables were measured for overall trends and dispersion. Likelihood of student retention was calculated through the Kaplan-Meier method. Survival functions were analyzed for each academic level. Likelihood of return was calculated through an actuarial method. Results: The dropout rate was 5.7% whereas 72% of students graduated. Dropout in specializations were 4.4%, Master’s programs, 8.5% and Ph.D. programs, 19.1%. The likelihood of student retention in specializations was 94.1% by semester 5, 91.7% for the Master´s program by semester 4 and 80.5% for the Ph.D. program, by semester 3. The probability of the return beyond two years after a student dropped out was 0%. Conclusions: Although CES University strives to maintain the permanence of their students, the results of this study will be used to consolidate actions towards retaining students and encourage graduation.

Keywords : School Dropouts; Higher Education; Doctoral Degrees; Masters Degrees; Survival Analysis.

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