Resumo

NUNEZ MEDINA, Gerardo. Bayesian spatial modeling of adolescent pregnancy risk through integrated nested Laplace approximation in Chiapas, 2015. PSM [online]. 2019, vol.17, n.1, pp.95-115. ISSN 1659-0201.  http://dx.doi.org/10.15517/psm.v17i1.37783.

The objective of the study is to analyze the spatial distribution of adolescent municipal fertility in Chiapas during 2015. Method: from the use of estimated structural additive models through the integrated nested approach of Laplace. Results: A first model identifies the non-random spatial patterns of fertility, while a second model analyzes the effect of cofactors such as poverty, marginalization and illiteracy on the spatial distribution of adolescent fertility. Discussion: The results seem to confirm that the spaces where higher rates of marginalization, illiteracy and poverty are registered increase the risk of setting up a cluster where the adolescent fertility rates observed are on average higher than those presented by neighboring municipalities.

Palavras-chave : Gaussian Markov Random Field; additive linear models; marginalization; poverty; illiteracy; INLA; México; Chiapas.

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