Introduction:

Behavioral analysis of the dynamics of epidemics such as dengue and malaria in Colombia has led to the design of new methodology of predictive character, which provides underlying mathematical commands to an apparent unpredictability of these behaviors.

Objective:

To confirm applicability of the methodology developed to predict the dynamics of death rate from road traffic injuries in Ibague Colombia for 2010, from the probabilistic random walk.

Methodology:

A physicist and mathematician of the dynamics of the death rate from road traffic injuries in Ibague, from the establishment of a complete probability space with which to establish the most probable event related to increases and consecutive declines analysis was performed annually. Finally, the geometric and probabilistic analysis of this dynamic allowed predicting the rate of deaths from road traffic injuries in 2010 in Ibague.

Results:

For 2010, the DANE reported that the number of deaths from road traffic injuries represents a rate of 20.9 per 100,000 inhabitants, the predicted value was 23.2, showing a success rate with implementing the methodology of 90,2 %.

Conclusions:

A probabilistic acausal order for the dynamic behavior of deaths from road traffic injuries in Ibague, which was possible to confirm the applicability of the methodology and predict the number of such deaths for 2010 was established.

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