Resumo

MALDONADO, Tito  e  ALFARO, Eric. Revisión y comparación de escenarios de cambio climático para el Parque Nacional Isla del Coco, Costa Rica. Rev. biol. trop [online]. 2012, vol.60, suppl.3, pp.83-112. ISSN 0034-7744.

Different climate change scenarios were revised and compared for Cocos Island National Park, Costa Rica. They were generated using different tools (MAGICC/SCENGEN, PRECIS and SDSM) and for the 2080 (2070-2099) time slice. Results shown in general a high dependence with the General Circulation Model, the downscaling technique and the socioeconomic scenario used. All scenarios presented an increase in mean and variance of the air surface temperature annual cycle. That result is also consistent with a future global warming scenario. Results for rainfall are different among each other. Most of the scenarios show an increase in the mean annual rainfall accumulation. However, it is not possible to establish a clear trend when annual variability is considered, mainly because almost all of the scenarios studied  projected an increase in the annual rainfall accumulates. 

Palavras-chave : Climate Change; Isla del Coco; Cocos Island; General Circulation Models; Downscaling; Climate Change Scenarios; Central America.

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